The Konosa pro football pick system (version 1.0.0)

Atlanta Falcons @ Carolina Panthers

Game will take place Sunday, December 13, 2015

Our model believes that the are most likely to win this game.

ATL Money Line

+345
Est. Payout on $100 bet:
$345
Odds Based Upon Moneyline:
22.47%

CAR Money Line

-385
Est. Payout on $100 bet:
$125.97
Odds Based Upon Moneyline:
79.38%

Model 1 Predictions

Model 1 is a more static model than Model 3. While it does a better job of decribing the actual expected performance of each team, it is generally less predictive than Model 3. A gap between the Model 1 and Model 3 predicted wins for a team should be viewed as a sign that the team in question is undergoing significant improvement or decline.

ATL PlaysCAR Plays ATL WsCAR Ws
Behind and Awful Ahead and Well 02.29
Badly Ahead and Well 00.77
Ahead and Well Behind and Awful 3.470
Above Avg Behind and Awful 0.620
Ahead and Well Below Avg 0.80
Average Below Avg 4.214.16
Above Avg Below Avg 0.520.43
Badly Below Avg 00.56
Behind and Awful Above Avg 01
Average Above Avg 0.50
Behind and Awful Well 01.03
Average Well 0.440.76
Badly Well 03.71
10.5914.75

Model 3 Predictions

Model 3 is an evolutionary model, and the groupings will change on a week-to-week basis. In general, Model 3 is more highly highly predictive than Model 1.

ATL PlaysCAR Plays ATL WsCAR Ws
Group 2 Group 5 1.22.93
Group 1 Group 5 00.23
Group 0 Group 5 1.610.76
Group 5 Group 4 0.210
Group 3 Group 4 0.540
Group 0 Group 4 0.290
Group 1 Group 3 00.3
Group 4 Group 3 01.26
Group 2 Group 2 0.740.57
Group 4 Group 1 00.9
Group 2 Group 1 0.010.63
Group 1 Group 1 0.542.38
Group 3 Group 0 00
Group 0 Group 0 0.540.47
5.7310.45

Head-to-Head History of ATL @ CAR

Day Outcome ATL Played CAR Played
Sunday, November 16, 2014 2 pt W ATL Average Below Avg
Sunday, November 3, 2013 24 pt W CAR Behind and Awful Ahead and Well
Sunday, December 9, 2012 10 pt W CAR Badly Well
Sunday, December 11, 2011 8 pt W ATL Average Below Avg
Sunday, December 12, 2010 21 pt W ATL Ahead and Well Behind and Awful
Sunday, November 15, 2009 9 pt W CAR Badly Ahead and Well