The Konosa pro football pick system (version 1.0.0)

San Diego Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs

Game will take place Sunday, December 13, 2015

Our model believes that the are most likely to win this game.

SD Money Line

+435
Est. Payout on $100 bet:
$434.99
Odds Based Upon Moneyline:
18.69%

KC Money Line

-500
Est. Payout on $100 bet:
$120
Odds Based Upon Moneyline:
83.33%

Model 1 Predictions

Model 1 is a more static model than Model 3. While it does a better job of decribing the actual expected performance of each team, it is generally less predictive than Model 3. A gap between the Model 1 and Model 3 predicted wins for a team should be viewed as a sign that the team in question is undergoing significant improvement or decline.

SD PlaysKC Plays SD WsKC Ws
Behind and Awful Ahead and Well 01.88
Badly Ahead and Well 01.14
Ahead and Well Behind and Awful 3.970
Above Avg Behind and Awful 1.110
Ahead and Well Below Avg 1.130
Average Below Avg 1.422.3
Above Avg Below Avg 1.561.41
Behind but Well Below Avg 0.510
Average Above Avg 0.980.81
Behind and Awful Well 01.6
Average Well 00.82
Badly Well 02.26
Behind but Well Well 0.880
11.612.25

Model 3 Predictions

Model 3 is an evolutionary model, and the groupings will change on a week-to-week basis. In general, Model 3 is more highly highly predictive than Model 1.

SD PlaysKC Plays SD WsKC Ws
Group 5 Group 5 0.310
Group 2 Group 5 0.961.04
Group 1 Group 5 00.48
Group 0 Group 5 1.261.86
Group 3 Group 4 1.210
Group 5 Group 4 0.420
Group 4 Group 3 01.56
Group 2 Group 2 00.57
Group 2 Group 1 0.430.58
Group 1 Group 1 0.591.87
Group 0 Group 0 1.180.01
6.388.02

Head-to-Head History of SD @ KC

Day Outcome SD Played KC Played
Sunday, December 28, 2014 12 pt W KC Above Avg Below Avg
Sunday, November 24, 2013 3 pt W SD Behind but Well Below Avg
Sunday, September 30, 2012 17 pt W SD Ahead and Well Behind and Awful
Monday, October 31, 2011 3 pt W KC Badly Well
Monday, September 13, 2010 7 pt W KC Average Well
Sunday, October 25, 2009 30 pt W SD Ahead and Well Behind and Awful