The Konosa pro football pick system (version 1.0.0)

Indianapolis Colts @ Jacksonville Jaguars

Game will take place Sunday, December 13, 2015

Our model believes that the Colts are most likely to win this game.

IND Money Line

+115
Est. Payout on $100 bet:
$114.99
Odds Based Upon Moneyline:
46.51%

JAC Money Line

-125
Est. Payout on $100 bet:
$180
Odds Based Upon Moneyline:
55.55%

Model 1 Predictions

Model 1 is a more static model than Model 3. While it does a better job of decribing the actual expected performance of each team, it is generally less predictive than Model 3. A gap between the Model 1 and Model 3 predicted wins for a team should be viewed as a sign that the team in question is undergoing significant improvement or decline.

IND PlaysJAC Plays IND WsJAC Ws
Badly Ahead and Well 00.43
Ahead and Well Behind and Awful 5.960
Average Behind and Awful 0.270.57
Above Avg Behind and Awful 2.070.66
Behind but Well Behind and Awful 0.360
Ahead and Well Below Avg 1.610
Behind and Awful Below Avg 00.51
Average Below Avg 3.041.82
Above Avg Below Avg 0.870
Behind but Well Below Avg 0.670
Average Above Avg 1.291.61
Badly Well 0.753.4
16.939.04

Model 3 Predictions

Model 3 is an evolutionary model, and the groupings will change on a week-to-week basis. In general, Model 3 is more highly highly predictive than Model 1.

IND PlaysJAC Plays IND WsJAC Ws
Group 2 Group 5 1.861.68
Group 1 Group 5 0.280.28
Group 0 Group 5 00.47
Group 0 Group 4 0.090
Group 3 Group 4 3.040
Group 5 Group 4 0.940.35
Group 4 Group 3 01.66
Group 2 Group 2 0.011.17
Group 1 Group 1 0.31.2
Group 2 Group 0 0.330
Group 0 Group 0 2.310.02
9.196.85

Head-to-Head History of IND @ JAC

Day Outcome IND Played JAC Played
Sunday, September 21, 2014 27 pt W IND Ahead and Well Behind and Awful
Sunday, September 29, 2013 34 pt W IND Ahead and Well Behind and Awful
Thursday, November 8, 2012 17 pt W IND Ahead and Well Behind and Awful
Sunday, January 1, 2012 6 pt W JAC Badly Well
Sunday, October 3, 2010 3 pt W JAC Average Above Avg
Thursday, December 17, 2009 4 pt W IND Behind but Well Behind and Awful