The Konosa pro football pick system (version 1.0.0)

New England Patriots @ Houston Texans

Game will take place Sunday, December 13, 2015

Our model believes that the are most likely to win this game.

NE Money Line

-185
Est. Payout on $100 bet:
$154.05
Odds Based Upon Moneyline:
64.91%

HOU Money Line

+170
Est. Payout on $100 bet:
$170
Odds Based Upon Moneyline:
37.03%

Model 1 Predictions

Model 1 is a more static model than Model 3. While it does a better job of decribing the actual expected performance of each team, it is generally less predictive than Model 3. A gap between the Model 1 and Model 3 predicted wins for a team should be viewed as a sign that the team in question is undergoing significant improvement or decline.

NE PlaysHOU Plays NE WsHOU Ws
Behind and Awful Ahead and Well 03.13
Ahead and Well Behind and Awful 5.070
Above Avg Behind and Awful 1.550.41
Ahead and Well Below Avg 1.070
Behind and Awful Below Avg 00.6
Average Below Avg 2.32.68
Above Avg Below Avg 0.910.49
Behind but Well Below Avg 1.210
Average Above Avg 00
Behind and Awful Well 00.59
Badly Well 02.01
12.139.94

Model 3 Predictions

Model 3 is an evolutionary model, and the groupings will change on a week-to-week basis. In general, Model 3 is more highly highly predictive than Model 1.

NE PlaysHOU Plays NE WsHOU Ws
Group 2 Group 5 1.661.42
Group 1 Group 5 00.76
Group 0 Group 5 0.821.13
Group 5 Group 4 1.320
Group 3 Group 4 1.550
Group 4 Group 3 01.28
Group 5 Group 2 0.110.11
Group 4 Group 1 00.01
Group 1 Group 1 00.86
Group 0 Group 0 2.370.55
7.856.16

Head-to-Head History of NE @ HOU

Day Outcome NE Played HOU Played
Sunday, December 1, 2013 3 pt W NE Behind but Well Below Avg
Sunday, January 3, 2010 7 pt W HOU Behind and Awful Below Avg