The Konosa pro football pick system (version 1.0.0)

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cincinnati Bengals

Game will take place Sunday, December 13, 2015

Our model believes that the Bengals are most likely to win this game.

PIT Money Line

+120
Est. Payout on $100 bet:
$120
Odds Based Upon Moneyline:
45.45%

CIN Money Line

-130
Est. Payout on $100 bet:
$176.92
Odds Based Upon Moneyline:
56.52%

Model 1 Predictions

Model 1 is a more static model than Model 3. While it does a better job of decribing the actual expected performance of each team, it is generally less predictive than Model 3. A gap between the Model 1 and Model 3 predicted wins for a team should be viewed as a sign that the team in question is undergoing significant improvement or decline.

PIT PlaysCIN Plays PIT WsCIN Ws
Behind and Awful Ahead and Well 03.26
Badly Ahead and Well 01.37
Ahead and Well Behind and Awful 1.60
Above Avg Behind and Awful 2.320.46
Ahead and Well Below Avg 0.720
Average Below Avg 3.213.38
Behind but Well Below Avg 1.510
Average Above Avg 0.450.87
Behind and Awful Well 00.97
Badly Well 03.65
Behind but Well Well 0.420
10.2613.98

Model 3 Predictions

Model 3 is an evolutionary model, and the groupings will change on a week-to-week basis. In general, Model 3 is more highly highly predictive than Model 1.

PIT PlaysCIN Plays PIT WsCIN Ws
Group 5 Group 5 0.470.46
Group 2 Group 5 0.691.07
Group 1 Group 5 0.620.56
Group 0 Group 5 1.250.7
Group 3 Group 4 0.380
Group 4 Group 3 02.23
Group 2 Group 1 00.3
Group 1 Group 1 02.07
Group 5 Group 0 0.550
Group 0 Group 0 1.530.59
5.528.02

Head-to-Head History of PIT @ CIN

Day Outcome PIT Played CIN Played
Sunday, December 7, 2014 21 pt W PIT Ahead and Well Below Avg
Monday, September 16, 2013 10 pt W CIN Badly Well
Sunday, October 21, 2012 7 pt W PIT Behind but Well Below Avg
Sunday, November 13, 2011 7 pt W PIT Above Avg Behind and Awful
Monday, November 8, 2010 6 pt W PIT Above Avg Behind and Awful
Sunday, September 27, 2009 3 pt W CIN Above Avg Behind and Awful