The Konosa pro football pick system (version 1.0.0)

Indianapolis Colts @ Pittsburgh Steelers

Game will take place Sunday, December 6, 2015

Our model believes that the are most likely to win this game.

IND Money Line

+300
Est. Payout on $100 bet:
$300
Odds Based Upon Moneyline:
25%

PIT Money Line

-360
Est. Payout on $100 bet:
$127.77
Odds Based Upon Moneyline:
78.26%

Model 1 Predictions

Model 1 is a more static model than Model 3. While it does a better job of decribing the actual expected performance of each team, it is generally less predictive than Model 3. A gap between the Model 1 and Model 3 predicted wins for a team should be viewed as a sign that the team in question is undergoing significant improvement or decline.

IND PlaysPIT Plays IND WsPIT Ws
Behind and Awful Ahead and Well 06.29
Badly Ahead and Well 00.91
Ahead and Well Behind and Awful 2.380
Above Avg Behind and Awful 2.260
Ahead and Well Below Avg 0.840
Behind and Awful Below Avg 00.55
Average Below Avg 2.71.46
Above Avg Below Avg 0.740
Behind but Well Below Avg 1.190
Behind and Awful Above Avg 01.1
Average Above Avg 0.510.76
Badly Above Avg 00.71
Behind and Awful Well 01.16
Average Well 1.331.33
Badly Well 0.582.62
Behind but Well Well 0.890.28
13.4717.21

Model 3 Predictions

Model 3 is an evolutionary model, and the groupings will change on a week-to-week basis. In general, Model 3 is more highly highly predictive than Model 1.

IND PlaysPIT Plays IND WsPIT Ws
Group 2 Group 5 1.921.09
Group 1 Group 5 0.880.87
Group 0 Group 5 00.12
Group 3 Group 4 1.780
Group 4 Group 3 02.76
Group 2 Group 2 0.022.34
Group 4 Group 2 00.69
Group 2 Group 1 0.220.46
Group 1 Group 1 0.321.3
Group 0 Group 0 1.360
6.539.67

Head-to-Head History of IND @ PIT

Day Outcome IND Played PIT Played
Sunday, December 6, 2015 35 pt W PIT Behind and Awful Ahead and Well
Sunday, October 26, 2014 17 pt W PIT Behind and Awful Ahead and Well