The Konosa pro football pick system (version 1.0.0)

Denver Broncos @ San Diego Chargers

Game will take place Sunday, December 6, 2015

Our model believes that the Broncos are most likely to win this game.

DEN Money Line

-200
Est. Payout on $100 bet:
$150
Odds Based Upon Moneyline:
66.66%

SD Money Line

+170
Est. Payout on $100 bet:
$170
Odds Based Upon Moneyline:
37.03%

Model 1 Predictions

Model 1 is a more static model than Model 3. While it does a better job of decribing the actual expected performance of each team, it is generally less predictive than Model 3. A gap between the Model 1 and Model 3 predicted wins for a team should be viewed as a sign that the team in question is undergoing significant improvement or decline.

DEN PlaysSD Plays DEN WsSD Ws
Behind and Awful Ahead and Well 03.68
Ahead and Well Behind and Awful 4.770
Above Avg Behind and Awful 2.10
Behind and Awful Below Avg 00.62
Average Below Avg 3.652.77
Above Avg Below Avg 0.460
Badly Below Avg 00.66
Behind but Well Below Avg 0.960
Average Above Avg 0.650.88
Badly Above Avg 00.58
Average Well 00.89
Badly Well 01.57
Behind but Well Well 1.310
13.9211.69

Model 3 Predictions

Model 3 is an evolutionary model, and the groupings will change on a week-to-week basis. In general, Model 3 is more highly highly predictive than Model 1.

DEN PlaysSD Plays DEN WsSD Ws
Group 2 Group 5 1.581.53
Group 0 Group 5 0.060
Group 5 Group 4 0.970
Group 3 Group 4 3.820
Group 4 Group 3 00.67
Group 2 Group 2 0.361.06
Group 4 Group 2 00.55
Group 2 Group 1 0.440.18
Group 1 Group 1 00.66
Group 0 Group 0 1.471.01
8.735.68

Head-to-Head History of DEN @ SD

Day Outcome DEN Played SD Played
Sunday, December 6, 2015 14 pt W DEN Ahead and Well Behind and Awful
Sunday, December 14, 2014 12 pt W DEN Ahead and Well Behind and Awful
Sunday, November 10, 2013 8 pt W DEN Above Avg Behind and Awful
Monday, October 15, 2012 11 pt W DEN Behind but Well Below Avg
Sunday, November 27, 2011 3 pt W DEN Behind but Well Well
Monday, November 22, 2010 21 pt W SD Behind and Awful Ahead and Well
Monday, October 19, 2009 11 pt W DEN Average Below Avg