The Konosa pro football pick system (version 1.0.0)

Kansas City Chiefs @ Oakland Raiders

Game will take place Sunday, December 6, 2015

Our model believes that the Chiefs are most likely to win this game.

KC Money Line

-145
Est. Payout on $100 bet:
$168.96
Odds Based Upon Moneyline:
59.18%

OAK Money Line

+125
Est. Payout on $100 bet:
$125
Odds Based Upon Moneyline:
44.44%

Model 1 Predictions

Model 1 is a more static model than Model 3. While it does a better job of decribing the actual expected performance of each team, it is generally less predictive than Model 3. A gap between the Model 1 and Model 3 predicted wins for a team should be viewed as a sign that the team in question is undergoing significant improvement or decline.

KC PlaysOAK Plays KC WsOAK Ws
Behind and Awful Ahead and Well 02.58
Badly Ahead and Well 01.34
Ahead and Well Behind and Awful 6.760
Above Avg Behind and Awful 1.350.31
Ahead and Well Below Avg 0.950
Average Below Avg 2.412.15
Above Avg Below Avg 1.050.69
Behind but Well Below Avg 0.490
Average Above Avg 00
Badly Above Avg 00.66
Behind and Awful Well 00.68
Badly Well 02.48
Behind but Well Well 0.660
13.710.91

Model 3 Predictions

Model 3 is an evolutionary model, and the groupings will change on a week-to-week basis. In general, Model 3 is more highly highly predictive than Model 1.

KC PlaysOAK Plays KC WsOAK Ws
Group 2 Group 5 0.230.1
Group 1 Group 5 00.9
Group 0 Group 5 1.280.02
Group 5 Group 4 0.930
Group 3 Group 4 4.010
Group 0 Group 4 0.450.45
Group 4 Group 3 01.35
Group 2 Group 2 0.390.83
Group 1 Group 2 00.53
Group 0 Group 2 00
Group 1 Group 1 0.312.35
Group 0 Group 0 0.310.01
7.956.58

Head-to-Head History of KC @ OAK

Day Outcome KC Played OAK Played
Sunday, December 6, 2015 14 pt W KC Average Below Avg
Thursday, November 20, 2014 4 pt W OAK Average Below Avg
Sunday, December 15, 2013 25 pt W KC Ahead and Well Behind and Awful
Sunday, December 16, 2012 15 pt W OAK Behind and Awful Well
Sunday, October 23, 2011 28 pt W KC Ahead and Well Behind and Awful
Sunday, November 7, 2010 3 pt W OAK Average Below Avg
Sunday, November 15, 2009 6 pt W KC Average Below Avg