The Konosa pro football pick system (version 1.0.0)

Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Game will take place Sunday, December 6, 2015

Our model believes that the Falcons are most likely to win this game.

ATL Money Line

-120
Est. Payout on $100 bet:
$183.33
Odds Based Upon Moneyline:
54.54%

TB Money Line

+100
Est. Payout on $100 bet:
$100
Odds Based Upon Moneyline:
50%

Model 1 Predictions

Model 1 is a more static model than Model 3. While it does a better job of decribing the actual expected performance of each team, it is generally less predictive than Model 3. A gap between the Model 1 and Model 3 predicted wins for a team should be viewed as a sign that the team in question is undergoing significant improvement or decline.

ATL PlaysTB Plays ATL WsTB Ws
Behind and Awful Ahead and Well 01.56
Badly Ahead and Well 00.78
Ahead and Well Behind and Awful 4.230
Average Behind and Awful 0.930.98
Above Avg Behind and Awful 1.730
Ahead and Well Below Avg 1.330
Average Below Avg 3.811.38
Above Avg Below Avg 0.720.8
Badly Below Avg 01.04
Badly Well 02.11
Behind but Well Well 1.180
13.978.69

Model 3 Predictions

Model 3 is an evolutionary model, and the groupings will change on a week-to-week basis. In general, Model 3 is more highly highly predictive than Model 1.

ATL PlaysTB Plays ATL WsTB Ws
Group 2 Group 5 1.161.67
Group 0 Group 5 1.40.28
Group 3 Group 4 1.630
Group 0 Group 4 1.010
Group 4 Group 3 00.93
Group 0 Group 2 0.520.51
Group 2 Group 2 0.750.57
Group 4 Group 2 00.32
Group 2 Group 1 0.010
Group 1 Group 1 0.130.59
Group 0 Group 0 1.050.15
7.695.06

Head-to-Head History of ATL @ TB

Day Outcome ATL Played TB Played
Sunday, December 6, 2015 4 pt W TB Average Below Avg
Sunday, November 9, 2014 10 pt W ATL Average Behind and Awful
Sunday, November 17, 2013 13 pt W TB Badly Well
Sunday, November 25, 2012 1 pt W ATL Average Below Avg
Sunday, September 25, 2011 3 pt W TB Badly Well
Sunday, December 5, 2010 4 pt W ATL Average Below Avg
Sunday, January 3, 2010 10 pt W ATL Average Below Avg