The Konosa pro football pick system (version 1.0.0)

Carolina Panthers @ New Orleans Saints

Game will take place Sunday, December 6, 2015

Our model believes that the are most likely to win this game.

CAR Money Line

-310
Est. Payout on $100 bet:
$132.25
Odds Based Upon Moneyline:
75.6%

NO Money Line

+225
Est. Payout on $100 bet:
$225
Odds Based Upon Moneyline:
30.76%

Model 1 Predictions

Model 1 is a more static model than Model 3. While it does a better job of decribing the actual expected performance of each team, it is generally less predictive than Model 3. A gap between the Model 1 and Model 3 predicted wins for a team should be viewed as a sign that the team in question is undergoing significant improvement or decline.

CAR PlaysNO Plays CAR WsNO Ws
Behind and Awful Ahead and Well 04.84
Badly Ahead and Well 00.63
Ahead and Well Behind and Awful 4.450
Above Avg Behind and Awful 0.920.29
Ahead and Well Below Avg 1.150
Behind and Awful Below Avg 00.48
Average Below Avg 2.363.14
Above Avg Below Avg 0.410.51
Badly Below Avg 00.82
Behind and Awful Well 00.82
Badly Well 01.28
Behind but Well Well 0.840
10.1512.85

Model 3 Predictions

Model 3 is an evolutionary model, and the groupings will change on a week-to-week basis. In general, Model 3 is more highly highly predictive than Model 1.

CAR PlaysNO Plays CAR WsNO Ws
Group 5 Group 5 0.40
Group 2 Group 5 1.241.06
Group 1 Group 5 0.70.72
Group 0 Group 5 1.491.41
Group 3 Group 4 2.360.5
Group 0 Group 4 0.50
Group 2 Group 3 00.19
Group 4 Group 3 01.71
Group 2 Group 2 00.85
Group 1 Group 2 0.220.22
Group 2 Group 1 00.6
Group 1 Group 1 00.72
Group 5 Group 0 00.02
Group 0 Group 0 1.080.16
8.038.22

Head-to-Head History of CAR @ NO

Day Outcome CAR Played NO Played
Sunday, December 6, 2015 3 pt W CAR Average Below Avg
Sunday, December 7, 2014 31 pt W CAR Ahead and Well Behind and Awful
Sunday, December 8, 2013 18 pt W NO Behind and Awful Ahead and Well
Sunday, December 30, 2012 6 pt W CAR Average Below Avg
Sunday, January 1, 2012 28 pt W NO Behind and Awful Ahead and Well
Sunday, October 3, 2010 2 pt W NO Average Below Avg
Sunday, November 8, 2009 10 pt W NO Above Avg Below Avg