The Konosa pro football pick system (version 1.0.0)

San Fransisco 49ers @ Chicago Bears

Game will take place Sunday, December 6, 2015

Our model believes that the 49ers are most likely to win this game.

SF Money Line

+250
Est. Payout on $100 bet:
$250
Odds Based Upon Moneyline:
28.57%

CHI Money Line

-300
Est. Payout on $100 bet:
$133.33
Odds Based Upon Moneyline:
75%

Model 1 Predictions

Model 1 is a more static model than Model 3. While it does a better job of decribing the actual expected performance of each team, it is generally less predictive than Model 3. A gap between the Model 1 and Model 3 predicted wins for a team should be viewed as a sign that the team in question is undergoing significant improvement or decline.

SF PlaysCHI Plays SF WsCHI Ws
Behind and Awful Ahead and Well 03.42
Ahead and Well Behind and Awful 4.120
Average Behind and Awful 0.790.29
Above Avg Behind and Awful 1.560
Ahead and Well Below Avg 2.40.31
Behind and Awful Below Avg 01.01
Average Below Avg 1.552.72
Behind and Awful Above Avg 00.47
Average Above Avg 00.39
Behind and Awful Well 00.82
Average Well 00.42
Badly Well 01.2
Behind but Well Well 0.890.55
11.3311.62

Model 3 Predictions

Model 3 is an evolutionary model, and the groupings will change on a week-to-week basis. In general, Model 3 is more highly highly predictive than Model 1.

SF PlaysCHI Plays SF WsCHI Ws
Group 2 Group 5 0.71.12
Group 0 Group 5 00.3
Group 3 Group 4 1.650
Group 4 Group 3 01.52
Group 2 Group 2 00.38
Group 4 Group 2 00.33
Group 2 Group 1 0.180.19
Group 1 Group 1 00.86
Group 5 Group 0 0.410
Group 0 Group 0 3.350.46
6.325.2

Head-to-Head History of SF @ CHI

Day Outcome SF Played CHI Played
Sunday, December 6, 2015 6 pt W SF Ahead and Well Below Avg