The Konosa pro football pick system (version 1.0.0)

Cincinnati Bengals @ Cleveland Browns

Game will take place Sunday, December 6, 2015

Our model believes that the Bengals are most likely to win this game.

CIN Money Line

-440
Est. Payout on $100 bet:
$122.72
Odds Based Upon Moneyline:
81.48%

CLE Money Line

+350
Est. Payout on $100 bet:
$350
Odds Based Upon Moneyline:
22.22%

Model 1 Predictions

Model 1 is a more static model than Model 3. While it does a better job of decribing the actual expected performance of each team, it is generally less predictive than Model 3. A gap between the Model 1 and Model 3 predicted wins for a team should be viewed as a sign that the team in question is undergoing significant improvement or decline.

CIN PlaysCLE Plays CIN WsCLE Ws
Behind and Awful Ahead and Well 02.01
Ahead and Well Behind and Awful 4.150
Above Avg Behind and Awful 2.230
Ahead and Well Below Avg 2.40
Behind and Awful Below Avg 00.74
Average Below Avg 3.381.03
Above Avg Below Avg 0.630
Behind but Well Below Avg 0.330
Average Above Avg 0.680.68
Behind and Awful Well 00.56
Average Well 0.360.75
Badly Well 02.69
Behind but Well Well 0.730.5
Average Behind but Well 00.68
14.949.68

Model 3 Predictions

Model 3 is an evolutionary model, and the groupings will change on a week-to-week basis. In general, Model 3 is more highly highly predictive than Model 1.

CIN PlaysCLE Plays CIN WsCLE Ws
Group 2 Group 5 1.851.15
Group 0 Group 5 1.570.57
Group 5 Group 4 0.210
Group 3 Group 4 1.860
Group 0 Group 4 0.670
Group 4 Group 3 01.24
Group 2 Group 2 0.460.84
Group 1 Group 1 01.9
Group 0 Group 0 2.690
9.345.71

Head-to-Head History of CIN @ CLE

Day Outcome CIN Played CLE Played
Sunday, December 6, 2015 34 pt W CIN Ahead and Well Behind and Awful
Sunday, December 14, 2014 30 pt W CIN Ahead and Well Behind and Awful
Sunday, September 29, 2013 11 pt W CLE Badly Well
Sunday, October 14, 2012 10 pt W CLE Average Behind but Well
Sunday, September 11, 2011 10 pt W CIN Average Below Avg
Sunday, October 3, 2010 3 pt W CLE Average Well
Sunday, October 4, 2009 3 pt W CIN Average Below Avg