The Konosa pro football pick system (version 1.0.0)

Baltimore Ravens @ Miami Dolphins

Game will take place Sunday, December 6, 2015

Our model believes that the Ravens are most likely to win this game.

BAL Money Line

+165
Est. Payout on $100 bet:
$165
Odds Based Upon Moneyline:
37.73%

MIA Money Line

-195
Est. Payout on $100 bet:
$151.28
Odds Based Upon Moneyline:
66.1%

Model 1 Predictions

Model 1 is a more static model than Model 3. While it does a better job of decribing the actual expected performance of each team, it is generally less predictive than Model 3. A gap between the Model 1 and Model 3 predicted wins for a team should be viewed as a sign that the team in question is undergoing significant improvement or decline.

BAL PlaysMIA Plays BAL WsMIA Ws
Behind and Awful Ahead and Well 01.64
Badly Ahead and Well 00.86
Ahead and Well Behind and Awful 3.20
Average Behind and Awful 0.841.45
Above Avg Behind and Awful 1.320.29
Ahead and Well Below Avg 2.720
Average Below Avg 3.453.01
Behind but Well Below Avg 0.530
Average Above Avg 00.8
Behind and Awful Well 00.62
Average Well 0.360.67
Badly Well 03.79
Behind but Well Well 00
12.4413.19

Model 3 Predictions

Model 3 is an evolutionary model, and the groupings will change on a week-to-week basis. In general, Model 3 is more highly highly predictive than Model 1.

BAL PlaysMIA Plays BAL WsMIA Ws
Group 5 Group 5 0.540
Group 2 Group 5 1.472.03
Group 1 Group 5 01
Group 0 Group 5 1.330.57
Group 5 Group 4 0.010
Group 3 Group 4 1.20
Group 0 Group 4 0.60
Group 4 Group 3 01.11
Group 2 Group 2 00
Group 1 Group 2 00
Group 0 Group 2 0.340
Group 2 Group 1 00.45
Group 1 Group 1 01.76
Group 0 Group 0 1.761.07
7.38.04

Head-to-Head History of BAL @ MIA

Day Outcome BAL Played MIA Played
Sunday, December 6, 2015 2 pt W MIA Average Above Avg
Sunday, December 7, 2014 15 pt W BAL Ahead and Well Below Avg
Sunday, October 6, 2013 3 pt W BAL Average Below Avg