The Konosa pro football pick system (version 1.0.0)

Houston Texans @ Buffalo Bills

Game will take place Sunday, December 6, 2015

Our model believes that the are most likely to win this game.

HOU Money Line

+155
Est. Payout on $100 bet:
$155
Odds Based Upon Moneyline:
39.21%

BUF Money Line

-175
Est. Payout on $100 bet:
$157.14
Odds Based Upon Moneyline:
63.63%

Model 1 Predictions

Model 1 is a more static model than Model 3. While it does a better job of decribing the actual expected performance of each team, it is generally less predictive than Model 3. A gap between the Model 1 and Model 3 predicted wins for a team should be viewed as a sign that the team in question is undergoing significant improvement or decline.

HOU PlaysBUF Plays HOU WsBUF Ws
Behind and Awful Ahead and Well 01.44
Badly Ahead and Well 01.34
Ahead and Well Behind and Awful 4.350
Average Behind and Awful 00.4
Above Avg Behind and Awful 1.830.37
Ahead and Well Below Avg 2.110
Average Below Avg 1.422.36
Above Avg Below Avg 00
Behind but Well Below Avg 0.910
Average Above Avg 0.220.82
Behind and Awful Well 02.34
Average Well 00.37
Badly Well 02.51
Behind but Well Well 0.650
11.5211.99

Model 3 Predictions

Model 3 is an evolutionary model, and the groupings will change on a week-to-week basis. In general, Model 3 is more highly highly predictive than Model 1.

HOU PlaysBUF Plays HOU WsBUF Ws
Group 5 Group 5 0.030
Group 2 Group 5 0.551.87
Group 0 Group 5 0.840.67
Group 5 Group 4 0.350
Group 3 Group 4 1.590
Group 0 Group 4 0.820.1
Group 4 Group 3 02.31
Group 1 Group 2 01.22
Group 2 Group 2 0.260.46
Group 4 Group 1 00.09
Group 2 Group 1 0.290.65
Group 1 Group 1 0.041.34
Group 5 Group 0 0.120
Group 0 Group 0 1.560
6.528.76

Head-to-Head History of HOU @ BUF

Day Outcome HOU Played BUF Played
Sunday, December 6, 2015 9 pt W BUF Badly Well
Sunday, November 1, 2009 21 pt W HOU Ahead and Well Below Avg