The Konosa pro football pick system (version 1.0.0)

Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions

Game will take place Thursday, December 3, 2015

Our model believes that the are most likely to win this game.

Model 1 Predictions

Model 1 is a more static model than Model 3. While it does a better job of decribing the actual expected performance of each team, it is generally less predictive than Model 3. A gap between the Model 1 and Model 3 predicted wins for a team should be viewed as a sign that the team in question is undergoing significant improvement or decline.

GB PlaysDET Plays GB WsDET Ws
Behind and Awful Ahead and Well 02.35
Ahead and Well Behind and Awful 3.080
Above Avg Behind and Awful 0.90.56
Ahead and Well Below Avg 2.660
Behind and Awful Below Avg 00.52
Average Below Avg 3.532.5
Above Avg Below Avg 1.151.3
Badly Below Avg 00.42
Average Above Avg 00
Badly Above Avg 00.44
Behind and Awful Well 01.37
Average Well 01.02
Badly Well 00.93
Behind but Well Well 20
13.3311.45

Model 3 Predictions

Model 3 is an evolutionary model, and the groupings will change on a week-to-week basis. In general, Model 3 is more highly highly predictive than Model 1.

GB PlaysDET Plays GB WsDET Ws
Group 5 Group 5 0.020
Group 2 Group 5 0.681.7
Group 0 Group 5 1.880.96
Group 0 Group 4 1.760.56
Group 3 Group 4 0.850
Group 5 Group 4 0.340
Group 4 Group 3 01
Group 2 Group 2 0.750.48
Group 2 Group 1 0.461.08
Group 1 Group 1 00.89
Group 0 Group 0 2.011.57
8.88.28

Head-to-Head History of GB @ DET

Day Outcome GB Played DET Played
Thursday, December 3, 2015 4 pt W GB Behind but Well Well
Sunday, September 21, 2014 12 pt W DET Behind and Awful Well
Thursday, November 28, 2013 30 pt W DET Behind and Awful Ahead and Well
Sunday, November 18, 2012 4 pt W GB Average Below Avg
Thursday, November 24, 2011 12 pt W GB Ahead and Well Below Avg
Sunday, December 12, 2010 4 pt W DET Average Below Avg
Thursday, November 26, 2009 22 pt W GB Ahead and Well Behind and Awful