The Konosa pro football pick system (version 1.0.0)

Baltimore Ravens @ Cleveland Browns

Game will take place Monday, November 30, 2015

Model 1 Predictions

Model 1 is a more static model than Model 3. While it does a better job of decribing the actual expected performance of each team, it is generally less predictive than Model 3. A gap between the Model 1 and Model 3 predicted wins for a team should be viewed as a sign that the team in question is undergoing significant improvement or decline.

BAL PlaysCLE Plays BAL WsCLE Ws
Behind and Awful Ahead and Well 01.26
Ahead and Well Behind and Awful 3.550
Average Behind and Awful 1.260.45
Above Avg Behind and Awful 1.080
Ahead and Well Below Avg 2.610
Average Below Avg 2.861.04
Above Avg Below Avg 0.680
Behind but Well Below Avg 0.610
Average Above Avg 01.07
Behind and Awful Well 00.58
Average Well 0.440.81
Badly Well 04.84
Behind but Well Well 00.3
13.1210.38

Model 3 Predictions

Model 3 is an evolutionary model, and the groupings will change on a week-to-week basis. In general, Model 3 is more highly highly predictive than Model 1.

BAL PlaysCLE Plays BAL WsCLE Ws
Group 2 Group 5 1.691.03
Group 1 Group 5 00.6
Group 0 Group 5 1.320.51
Group 0 Group 4 0.590
Group 3 Group 4 1.230
Group 5 Group 4 0.110
Group 4 Group 3 00.76
Group 2 Group 2 01.09
Group 2 Group 1 00.29
Group 1 Group 1 02.48
Group 0 Group 0 1.890
6.846.78

Head-to-Head History of BAL @ CLE

Day Outcome BAL Played CLE Played
Monday, November 30, 2015 6 pt W BAL Average Behind and Awful
Sunday, September 21, 2014 2 pt W BAL Average Below Avg
Sunday, November 3, 2013 6 pt W CLE Badly Well
Sunday, November 4, 2012 10 pt W BAL Ahead and Well Behind and Awful
Sunday, December 4, 2011 14 pt W BAL Ahead and Well Below Avg
Sunday, December 26, 2010 10 pt W BAL Above Avg Below Avg
Monday, November 16, 2009 16 pt W BAL Ahead and Well Below Avg