The Konosa pro football pick system (version 1.0.0)

New England Patriots @ Denver Broncos

Game will take place Sunday, November 29, 2015

Our model believes that the Broncos are most likely to win this game.

NE Money Line

-145
Est. Payout on $100 bet:
$168.96
Odds Based Upon Moneyline:
59.18%

DEN Money Line

+125
Est. Payout on $100 bet:
$125
Odds Based Upon Moneyline:
44.44%

Model 1 Predictions

Model 1 is a more static model than Model 3. While it does a better job of decribing the actual expected performance of each team, it is generally less predictive than Model 3. A gap between the Model 1 and Model 3 predicted wins for a team should be viewed as a sign that the team in question is undergoing significant improvement or decline.

NE PlaysDEN Plays NE WsDEN Ws
Behind and Awful Ahead and Well 04.04
Ahead and Well Behind and Awful 5.440
Above Avg Behind and Awful 1.451.67
Ahead and Well Below Avg 1.040
Behind and Awful Below Avg 00.63
Average Below Avg 1.942.26
Above Avg Below Avg 1.180.99
Average Above Avg 00
Behind and Awful Well 00.88
Badly Well 01.65
Behind and Awful Behind but Well 00.52
11.0712.68

Model 3 Predictions

Model 3 is an evolutionary model, and the groupings will change on a week-to-week basis. In general, Model 3 is more highly highly predictive than Model 1.

NE PlaysDEN Plays NE WsDEN Ws
Group 5 Group 5 0.090
Group 2 Group 5 1.341.66
Group 0 Group 5 0.750.41
Group 5 Group 4 0.880
Group 3 Group 4 1.340
Group 0 Group 4 0.310
Group 4 Group 3 01.51
Group 5 Group 3 0.190
Group 1 Group 2 00.25
Group 4 Group 1 00.27
Group 1 Group 1 01.64
Group 0 Group 0 2.081.95
7.037.73

Head-to-Head History of NE @ DEN

Day Outcome NE Played DEN Played
Sunday, November 29, 2015 6 pt W DEN Above Avg Behind and Awful
Sunday, December 18, 2011 18 pt W NE Above Avg Behind and Awful
Sunday, October 11, 2009 3 pt W DEN Above Avg Below Avg