The Konosa pro football pick system (version 1.0.0)

Buffalo Bills @ Kansas City Chiefs

Game will take place Sunday, November 29, 2015

Our model believes that the are most likely to win this game.

BUF Money Line

+200
Est. Payout on $100 bet:
$200
Odds Based Upon Moneyline:
33.33%

KC Money Line

-240
Est. Payout on $100 bet:
$141.66
Odds Based Upon Moneyline:
70.58%

Model 1 Predictions

Model 1 is a more static model than Model 3. While it does a better job of decribing the actual expected performance of each team, it is generally less predictive than Model 3. A gap between the Model 1 and Model 3 predicted wins for a team should be viewed as a sign that the team in question is undergoing significant improvement or decline.

BUF PlaysKC Plays BUF WsKC Ws
Behind and Awful Ahead and Well 04.08
Ahead and Well Behind and Awful 3.20
Above Avg Behind and Awful 1.40
Average Below Avg 2.182.92
Behind but Well Below Avg 0.440
Average Above Avg 0.550.64
Average Well 1.071.63
Badly Well 03.22
Behind but Well Well 0.640
9.5112.5

Model 3 Predictions

Model 3 is an evolutionary model, and the groupings will change on a week-to-week basis. In general, Model 3 is more highly highly predictive than Model 1.

BUF PlaysKC Plays BUF WsKC Ws
Group 2 Group 5 1.451.23
Group 1 Group 5 00.73
Group 0 Group 5 0.451.9
Group 3 Group 4 1.070
Group 4 Group 3 01.63
Group 2 Group 3 00.28
Group 2 Group 2 01.21
Group 4 Group 2 00.1
Group 5 Group 2 0.120
Group 2 Group 1 00.42
Group 1 Group 1 0.561.79
Group 0 Group 0 1.540.01
5.229.33

Head-to-Head History of BUF @ KC

Day Outcome BUF Played KC Played
Sunday, November 29, 2015 8 pt W KC Average Below Avg
Sunday, September 11, 2011 34 pt W BUF Ahead and Well Behind and Awful
Sunday, October 31, 2010 3 pt W KC Average Above Avg
Sunday, December 13, 2009 6 pt W BUF Above Avg Behind and Awful