The Konosa pro football pick system (version 1.0.0)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Indianapolis Colts

Game will take place Sunday, November 29, 2015

Our model believes that the Colts are most likely to win this game.

TB Money Line

+130
Est. Payout on $100 bet:
$130
Odds Based Upon Moneyline:
43.47%

IND Money Line

-150
Est. Payout on $100 bet:
$166.66
Odds Based Upon Moneyline:
60%

Model 1 Predictions

Model 1 is a more static model than Model 3. While it does a better job of decribing the actual expected performance of each team, it is generally less predictive than Model 3. A gap between the Model 1 and Model 3 predicted wins for a team should be viewed as a sign that the team in question is undergoing significant improvement or decline.

TB PlaysIND Plays TB WsIND Ws
Behind and Awful Ahead and Well 03.92
Badly Ahead and Well 01.02
Ahead and Well Behind and Awful 2.830
Average Behind and Awful 0.430
Above Avg Behind and Awful 00.79
Ahead and Well Below Avg 0.570
Average Below Avg 1.432.64
Above Avg Below Avg 0.70.61
Behind but Well Below Avg 0.680.68
Behind and Awful Above Avg 00.82
Average Above Avg 0.510.79
Behind and Awful Well 01.23
Average Well 01.53
Badly Well 02.77
Behind but Well Well 0.860
8.0416.85

Model 3 Predictions

Model 3 is an evolutionary model, and the groupings will change on a week-to-week basis. In general, Model 3 is more highly highly predictive than Model 1.

TB PlaysIND Plays TB WsIND Ws
Group 2 Group 5 0.481.56
Group 1 Group 5 00.44
Group 0 Group 5 0.680.89
Group 5 Group 4 0.950.26
Group 3 Group 4 1.250.29
Group 0 Group 4 00
Group 4 Group 3 01.96
Group 2 Group 2 01.47
Group 1 Group 2 00.31
Group 2 Group 1 00
Group 1 Group 1 0.042.43
Group 0 Group 0 1.730.61
5.1510.27

Head-to-Head History of TB @ IND

Day Outcome TB Played IND Played
Sunday, November 29, 2015 13 pt W IND Behind and Awful Above Avg