The Konosa pro football pick system (version 1.0.0)

Minnesota Vikings @ Atlanta Falcons

Game will take place Sunday, November 29, 2015

Our model believes that the Falcons are most likely to win this game.

MIN Money Line

+105
Est. Payout on $100 bet:
$105
Odds Based Upon Moneyline:
48.78%

ATL Money Line

-125
Est. Payout on $100 bet:
$180
Odds Based Upon Moneyline:
55.55%

Model 1 Predictions

Model 1 is a more static model than Model 3. While it does a better job of decribing the actual expected performance of each team, it is generally less predictive than Model 3. A gap between the Model 1 and Model 3 predicted wins for a team should be viewed as a sign that the team in question is undergoing significant improvement or decline.

MIN PlaysATL Plays MIN WsATL Ws
Behind and Awful Ahead and Well 02.45
Badly Ahead and Well 00.58
Ahead and Well Behind and Awful 2.940
Average Behind and Awful 0.920.29
Behind and Awful Below Avg 00.62
Average Below Avg 2.874.83
Badly Below Avg 00.48
Average Above Avg 00.72
Behind and Awful Well 00.44
Average Well 00.94
Badly Well 02.87
Behind and Awful Behind but Well 00.38
6.7414.64

Model 3 Predictions

Model 3 is an evolutionary model, and the groupings will change on a week-to-week basis. In general, Model 3 is more highly highly predictive than Model 1.

MIN PlaysATL Plays MIN WsATL Ws
Group 2 Group 5 0.171.11
Group 0 Group 5 0.981.22
Group 3 Group 4 0.950
Group 4 Group 3 02.06
Group 1 Group 2 00.1
Group 2 Group 1 00
Group 1 Group 1 01.79
Group 0 Group 0 2.210.8
4.337.11

Head-to-Head History of MIN @ ATL

Day Outcome MIN Played ATL Played
Sunday, November 29, 2015 10 pt W MIN Ahead and Well Behind and Awful
Sunday, November 27, 2011 10 pt W ATL Average Well