The Konosa pro football pick system (version 1.0.0)

Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots

Game will take place Monday, November 23, 2015

Our model believes that the Patriots are most likely to win this game.

BUF Money Line

+275
Est. Payout on $100 bet:
$275
Odds Based Upon Moneyline:
26.66%

NE Money Line

-335
Est. Payout on $100 bet:
$129.85
Odds Based Upon Moneyline:
77.01%

Model 1 Predictions

Model 1 is a more static model than Model 3. While it does a better job of decribing the actual expected performance of each team, it is generally less predictive than Model 3. A gap between the Model 1 and Model 3 predicted wins for a team should be viewed as a sign that the team in question is undergoing significant improvement or decline.

BUF PlaysNE Plays BUF WsNE Ws
Behind and Awful Ahead and Well 07.55
Ahead and Well Behind and Awful 1.890
Average Behind and Awful 00.82
Above Avg Behind and Awful 0.840.84
Average Below Avg 1.82.55
Badly Below Avg 01.09
Average Above Avg 0.450.94
Average Well 1.11.67
Badly Well 04.14
Behind but Well Well 0.50.5
Average Behind but Well 00.49
Above Avg Behind but Well 00.95
6.621.58

Model 3 Predictions

Model 3 is an evolutionary model, and the groupings will change on a week-to-week basis. In general, Model 3 is more highly highly predictive than Model 1.

BUF PlaysNE Plays BUF WsNE Ws
Group 2 Group 5 1.61.92
Group 1 Group 5 01.18
Group 0 Group 5 0.290.53
Group 0 Group 4 0.150.3
Group 4 Group 3 03.16
Group 2 Group 2 01.16
Group 4 Group 2 00.35
Group 5 Group 2 0.20
Group 2 Group 1 00.61
Group 1 Group 1 0.461.92
Group 0 Group 0 1.471.07
4.1912.23

Head-to-Head History of BUF @ NE

Day Outcome BUF Played NE Played
Monday, November 23, 2015 7 pt W NE Average Well
Sunday, December 28, 2014 8 pt W BUF Ahead and Well Behind and Awful
Sunday, December 29, 2013 14 pt W NE Badly Well
Sunday, November 11, 2012 6 pt W NE Badly Well
Sunday, January 1, 2012 28 pt W NE Above Avg Behind but Well
Sunday, September 26, 2010 8 pt W NE Behind and Awful Ahead and Well
Monday, September 14, 2009 1 pt W NE Average Behind and Awful