The Konosa pro football pick system (version 1.0.0)

Kansas City Chiefs @ San Diego Chargers

Game will take place Sunday, November 22, 2015

Our model believes that the Chargers are most likely to win this game.

KC Money Line

-175
Est. Payout on $100 bet:
$157.14
Odds Based Upon Moneyline:
63.63%

SD Money Line

+155
Est. Payout on $100 bet:
$155
Odds Based Upon Moneyline:
39.21%

Model 1 Predictions

Model 1 is a more static model than Model 3. While it does a better job of decribing the actual expected performance of each team, it is generally less predictive than Model 3. A gap between the Model 1 and Model 3 predicted wins for a team should be viewed as a sign that the team in question is undergoing significant improvement or decline.

KC PlaysSD Plays KC WsSD Ws
Behind and Awful Ahead and Well 05.3
Ahead and Well Behind and Awful 4.480
Above Avg Behind and Awful 1.060
Average Below Avg 2.743.42
Above Avg Below Avg 0.830
Badly Below Avg 00.69
Behind but Well Below Avg 0.820
Average Above Avg 00.36
Badly Above Avg 00.58
Behind and Awful Well 00.66
Average Well 00.68
Badly Well 02.02
Behind but Well Well 1.350
11.313.73

Model 3 Predictions

Model 3 is an evolutionary model, and the groupings will change on a week-to-week basis. In general, Model 3 is more highly highly predictive than Model 1.

KC PlaysSD Plays KC WsSD Ws
Group 2 Group 5 0.781.15
Group 1 Group 5 00.75
Group 0 Group 5 1.370
Group 5 Group 4 0.10
Group 3 Group 4 4.390
Group 4 Group 3 01.33
Group 2 Group 2 0.530.93
Group 2 Group 1 0.270.16
Group 1 Group 1 0.30.91
Group 0 Group 0 0.210.47
7.985.71

Head-to-Head History of KC @ SD

Day Outcome KC Played SD Played
Sunday, November 22, 2015 30 pt W KC Ahead and Well Behind and Awful
Sunday, October 19, 2014 3 pt W KC Average Below Avg
Sunday, December 29, 2013 3 pt W SD Average Below Avg
Thursday, November 1, 2012 18 pt W SD Badly Well
Sunday, September 25, 2011 3 pt W SD Average Well
Sunday, December 12, 2010 31 pt W SD Behind and Awful Ahead and Well
Sunday, November 29, 2009 29 pt W SD Behind and Awful Ahead and Well