The Konosa pro football pick system (version 1.0.0)

Dallas Cowboys @ Miami Dolphins

Game will take place Sunday, November 22, 2015

Our model believes that the are most likely to win this game.

DAL Money Line

-120
Est. Payout on $100 bet:
$183.33
Odds Based Upon Moneyline:
54.54%

MIA Money Line

+100
Est. Payout on $100 bet:
$100
Odds Based Upon Moneyline:
50%

Model 1 Predictions

Model 1 is a more static model than Model 3. While it does a better job of decribing the actual expected performance of each team, it is generally less predictive than Model 3. A gap between the Model 1 and Model 3 predicted wins for a team should be viewed as a sign that the team in question is undergoing significant improvement or decline.

DAL PlaysMIA Plays DAL WsMIA Ws
Behind and Awful Ahead and Well 01.54
Badly Ahead and Well 00.81
Ahead and Well Behind and Awful 3.390
Average Behind and Awful 00.71
Above Avg Behind and Awful 0.870.3
Ahead and Well Below Avg 3.190
Behind and Awful Below Avg 00.53
Average Below Avg 4.333.72
Behind but Well Below Avg 00
Behind and Awful Above Avg 00.45
Average Above Avg 0.311.09
Average Well 0.290.81
Badly Well 01
Behind but Well Well 0.690
13.111

Model 3 Predictions

Model 3 is an evolutionary model, and the groupings will change on a week-to-week basis. In general, Model 3 is more highly highly predictive than Model 1.

DAL PlaysMIA Plays DAL WsMIA Ws
Group 2 Group 5 2.042.24
Group 1 Group 5 00.22
Group 0 Group 5 1.520.99
Group 5 Group 4 0.510
Group 3 Group 4 1.430
Group 0 Group 4 0.830
Group 4 Group 3 01.42
Group 4 Group 2 00.53
Group 2 Group 2 00
Group 0 Group 2 0.130
Group 1 Group 1 0.290.3
Group 0 Group 0 1.860.73
8.656.47

Head-to-Head History of DAL @ MIA

Day Outcome DAL Played MIA Played
Sunday, November 22, 2015 10 pt W DAL Ahead and Well Below Avg