The Konosa pro football pick system (version 1.0.0)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Philadelphia Eagles

Game will take place Sunday, November 22, 2015

Our model believes that the Eagles are most likely to win this game.

TB Money Line

+210
Est. Payout on $100 bet:
$210
Odds Based Upon Moneyline:
32.25%

PHI Money Line

-250
Est. Payout on $100 bet:
$140
Odds Based Upon Moneyline:
71.42%

Model 1 Predictions

Model 1 is a more static model than Model 3. While it does a better job of decribing the actual expected performance of each team, it is generally less predictive than Model 3. A gap between the Model 1 and Model 3 predicted wins for a team should be viewed as a sign that the team in question is undergoing significant improvement or decline.

TB PlaysPHI Plays TB WsPHI Ws
Behind and Awful Ahead and Well 04.98
Badly Ahead and Well 00.76
Ahead and Well Behind and Awful 2.960
Average Behind and Awful 0.350.49
Above Avg Behind and Awful 00
Ahead and Well Below Avg 1.150
Average Below Avg 1.71.56
Above Avg Below Avg 10.32
Behind and Awful Above Avg 00.96
Average Above Avg 0.780.43
Behind and Awful Well 00.49
Badly Well 02.2
Behind but Well Well 0.580
8.5512.22

Model 3 Predictions

Model 3 is an evolutionary model, and the groupings will change on a week-to-week basis. In general, Model 3 is more highly highly predictive than Model 1.

TB PlaysPHI Plays TB WsPHI Ws
Group 2 Group 5 0.351.32
Group 0 Group 5 1.050
Group 5 Group 4 1.120
Group 3 Group 4 0.690
Group 0 Group 4 00
Group 4 Group 3 02.16
Group 2 Group 2 00.02
Group 2 Group 1 00.42
Group 1 Group 1 0.021.22
Group 0 Group 0 1.050.04
4.315.21

Head-to-Head History of TB @ PHI

Day Outcome TB Played PHI Played
Sunday, November 22, 2015 28 pt W TB Ahead and Well Behind and Awful
Sunday, October 11, 2009 19 pt W PHI Badly Ahead and Well