The Konosa pro football pick system (version 1.0.0)

Indianapolis Colts @ Atlanta Falcons

Game will take place Sunday, November 22, 2015

Our model believes that the Colts are most likely to win this game.

IND Money Line

+190
Est. Payout on $100 bet:
$190
Odds Based Upon Moneyline:
34.48%

ATL Money Line

-230
Est. Payout on $100 bet:
$143.47
Odds Based Upon Moneyline:
69.69%

Model 1 Predictions

Model 1 is a more static model than Model 3. While it does a better job of decribing the actual expected performance of each team, it is generally less predictive than Model 3. A gap between the Model 1 and Model 3 predicted wins for a team should be viewed as a sign that the team in question is undergoing significant improvement or decline.

IND PlaysATL Plays IND WsATL Ws
Behind and Awful Ahead and Well 04.39
Badly Ahead and Well 00.61
Ahead and Well Behind and Awful 3.310
Average Behind and Awful 0.510.34
Above Avg Behind and Awful 2.461.65
Behind and Awful Below Avg 00.42
Average Below Avg 4.352.45
Above Avg Below Avg 1.170
Average Above Avg 0.530.78
Behind and Awful Well 00.89
Average Well 1.490.85
Badly Well 0.83.6
Behind but Well Well 0.590
15.2516.01

Model 3 Predictions

Model 3 is an evolutionary model, and the groupings will change on a week-to-week basis. In general, Model 3 is more highly highly predictive than Model 1.

IND PlaysATL Plays IND WsATL Ws
Group 2 Group 5 1.720.96
Group 1 Group 5 0.280.28
Group 0 Group 5 00.48
Group 3 Group 4 1.880
Group 4 Group 3 02.84
Group 2 Group 1 0.330
Group 1 Group 1 0.421.69
Group 0 Group 0 3.830.78
8.497.06

Head-to-Head History of IND @ ATL

Day Outcome IND Played ATL Played
Sunday, November 22, 2015 3 pt W IND Average Well