The Konosa pro football pick system (version 1.0.0)

Oakland Raiders @ Detroit Lions

Game will take place Sunday, November 22, 2015

Our model believes that the Lions are most likely to win this game.

OAK Money Line

+100
Est. Payout on $100 bet:
$100
Odds Based Upon Moneyline:
50%

DET Money Line

-120
Est. Payout on $100 bet:
$183.33
Odds Based Upon Moneyline:
54.54%

Model 1 Predictions

Model 1 is a more static model than Model 3. While it does a better job of decribing the actual expected performance of each team, it is generally less predictive than Model 3. A gap between the Model 1 and Model 3 predicted wins for a team should be viewed as a sign that the team in question is undergoing significant improvement or decline.

OAK PlaysDET Plays OAK WsDET Ws
Behind and Awful Ahead and Well 04.11
Badly Ahead and Well 00.94
Ahead and Well Behind and Awful 1.550
Average Behind and Awful 00.6
Above Avg Behind and Awful 2.470.8
Ahead and Well Below Avg 1.520
Behind and Awful Below Avg 00.76
Average Below Avg 1.092.19
Above Avg Below Avg 0.40.76
Badly Below Avg 00.91
Behind but Well Below Avg 0.580
Average Above Avg 00
Badly Above Avg 00.46
Average Well 01.48
Badly Well 01.33
7.6414.4

Model 3 Predictions

Model 3 is an evolutionary model, and the groupings will change on a week-to-week basis. In general, Model 3 is more highly highly predictive than Model 1.

OAK PlaysDET Plays OAK WsDET Ws
Group 2 Group 5 0.143.1
Group 0 Group 5 1.931.11
Group 5 Group 4 0.010
Group 3 Group 4 0.640
Group 0 Group 4 00.34
Group 4 Group 3 02.65
Group 2 Group 2 00.34
Group 2 Group 1 00.11
Group 1 Group 1 00.88
Group 0 Group 0 1.220.81
3.969.37

Head-to-Head History of OAK @ DET

Day Outcome OAK Played DET Played
Sunday, November 22, 2015 5 pt W DET Average Well