The Konosa pro football pick system (version 1.0.0)

Denver Broncos @ Chicago Bears

Game will take place Sunday, November 22, 2015

Our model believes that the Broncos are most likely to win this game.

DEN Money Line

-110
Est. Payout on $100 bet:
$190.9
Odds Based Upon Moneyline:
52.38%

CHI Money Line

+100
Est. Payout on $100 bet:
$100
Odds Based Upon Moneyline:
50%

Model 1 Predictions

Model 1 is a more static model than Model 3. While it does a better job of decribing the actual expected performance of each team, it is generally less predictive than Model 3. A gap between the Model 1 and Model 3 predicted wins for a team should be viewed as a sign that the team in question is undergoing significant improvement or decline.

DEN PlaysCHI Plays DEN WsCHI Ws
Behind and Awful Ahead and Well 01.33
Badly Ahead and Well 01.22
Ahead and Well Behind and Awful 4.080
Average Behind and Awful 0.880.32
Above Avg Behind and Awful 2.860
Ahead and Well Below Avg 1.850.24
Behind and Awful Below Avg 00.38
Average Below Avg 4.182.54
Above Avg Below Avg 0.630.36
Average Above Avg 0.670.91
Badly Above Avg 00.53
Average Well 00.88
Badly Well 01.89
Behind but Well Well 1.10.68
16.311.32

Model 3 Predictions

Model 3 is an evolutionary model, and the groupings will change on a week-to-week basis. In general, Model 3 is more highly highly predictive than Model 1.

DEN PlaysCHI Plays DEN WsCHI Ws
Group 2 Group 5 1.081.09
Group 0 Group 5 0.110.25
Group 5 Group 4 1.170
Group 3 Group 4 2.350
Group 0 Group 4 0.610
Group 4 Group 3 00.28
Group 4 Group 2 00.58
Group 2 Group 2 0.20.71
Group 2 Group 1 0.390.19
Group 1 Group 1 01.67
Group 0 Group 0 2.890.36
8.835.16

Head-to-Head History of DEN @ CHI

Day Outcome DEN Played CHI Played
Sunday, November 22, 2015 2 pt W DEN Above Avg Behind and Awful