The Konosa pro football pick system (version 1.0.0)

Houston Texans @ Cincinnati Bengals

Game will take place Monday, November 16, 2015

Our model believes that the are most likely to win this game.

HOU Money Line

+435
Est. Payout on $100 bet:
$434.99
Odds Based Upon Moneyline:
18.69%

CIN Money Line

-500
Est. Payout on $100 bet:
$120
Odds Based Upon Moneyline:
83.33%

Model 1 Predictions

Model 1 is a more static model than Model 3. While it does a better job of decribing the actual expected performance of each team, it is generally less predictive than Model 3. A gap between the Model 1 and Model 3 predicted wins for a team should be viewed as a sign that the team in question is undergoing significant improvement or decline.

HOU PlaysCIN Plays HOU WsCIN Ws
Behind and Awful Ahead and Well 03.2
Badly Ahead and Well 02.1
Ahead and Well Behind and Awful 2.470
Above Avg Behind and Awful 1.650.36
Ahead and Well Below Avg 1.830
Average Below Avg 1.412.91
Behind but Well Below Avg 1.70
Behind and Awful Above Avg 00.54
Average Above Avg 0.340.87
Behind and Awful Well 01.01
Badly Well 02.86
Behind but Well Well 0.650
10.0813.88

Model 3 Predictions

Model 3 is an evolutionary model, and the groupings will change on a week-to-week basis. In general, Model 3 is more highly highly predictive than Model 1.

HOU PlaysCIN Plays HOU WsCIN Ws
Group 5 Group 5 0.210.21
Group 2 Group 5 0.751.04
Group 1 Group 5 0.410.32
Group 0 Group 5 0.870.48
Group 3 Group 4 0.990
Group 4 Group 3 03.17
Group 2 Group 2 0.261.25
Group 4 Group 1 00.46
Group 2 Group 1 0.20.45
Group 1 Group 1 0.030.98
Group 5 Group 0 0.380
Group 0 Group 0 1.330.61
5.489.02

Head-to-Head History of HOU @ CIN

Day Outcome HOU Played CIN Played
Monday, November 16, 2015 4 pt W HOU Behind but Well Below Avg
Sunday, December 11, 2011 1 pt W HOU Behind but Well Below Avg
Sunday, October 18, 2009 11 pt W HOU Ahead and Well Below Avg