The Konosa pro football pick system (version 1.0.0)

Kansas City Chiefs @ Denver Broncos

Game will take place Sunday, November 15, 2015

Our model believes that the Broncos are most likely to win this game.

KC Money Line

+195
Est. Payout on $100 bet:
$195
Odds Based Upon Moneyline:
33.89%

DEN Money Line

-215
Est. Payout on $100 bet:
$146.51
Odds Based Upon Moneyline:
68.25%

Model 1 Predictions

Model 1 is a more static model than Model 3. While it does a better job of decribing the actual expected performance of each team, it is generally less predictive than Model 3. A gap between the Model 1 and Model 3 predicted wins for a team should be viewed as a sign that the team in question is undergoing significant improvement or decline.

KC PlaysDEN Plays KC WsDEN Ws
Behind and Awful Ahead and Well 05.97
Badly Ahead and Well 00.89
Ahead and Well Behind and Awful 4.20
Above Avg Behind and Awful 1.671.06
Ahead and Well Below Avg 1.130
Average Below Avg 1.972.79
Above Avg Below Avg 1.570.76
Badly Below Avg 00.54
Average Above Avg 00
Behind and Awful Well 01.14
Average Well 00.4
Badly Well 02.46
10.5716.04

Model 3 Predictions

Model 3 is an evolutionary model, and the groupings will change on a week-to-week basis. In general, Model 3 is more highly highly predictive than Model 1.

KC PlaysDEN Plays KC WsDEN Ws
Group 2 Group 5 0.320.63
Group 0 Group 5 1.080.48
Group 5 Group 4 0.010
Group 3 Group 4 3.130
Group 0 Group 4 0.240
Group 2 Group 3 00.48
Group 4 Group 3 02.03
Group 2 Group 2 0.491.05
Group 1 Group 2 00.51
Group 2 Group 1 0.240.53
Group 1 Group 1 0.382.82
Group 0 Group 0 0.450.92
6.399.5

Head-to-Head History of KC @ DEN

Day Outcome KC Played DEN Played
Sunday, November 15, 2015 16 pt W KC Ahead and Well Behind and Awful
Sunday, September 14, 2014 7 pt W DEN Badly Below Avg
Sunday, November 17, 2013 10 pt W DEN Badly Ahead and Well
Sunday, December 30, 2012 35 pt W DEN Behind and Awful Ahead and Well
Sunday, January 1, 2012 4 pt W KC Above Avg Below Avg
Sunday, November 14, 2010 20 pt W DEN Badly Ahead and Well
Sunday, January 3, 2010 20 pt W KC Ahead and Well Behind and Awful