The Konosa pro football pick system (version 1.0.0)

Dallas Cowboys @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Game will take place Sunday, November 15, 2015

Our model believes that the Cowboys are most likely to win this game.

DAL Money Line

-125
Est. Payout on $100 bet:
$180
Odds Based Upon Moneyline:
55.55%

TB Money Line

+115
Est. Payout on $100 bet:
$115
Odds Based Upon Moneyline:
46.51%

Model 1 Predictions

Model 1 is a more static model than Model 3. While it does a better job of decribing the actual expected performance of each team, it is generally less predictive than Model 3. A gap between the Model 1 and Model 3 predicted wins for a team should be viewed as a sign that the team in question is undergoing significant improvement or decline.

DAL PlaysTB Plays DAL WsTB Ws
Behind and Awful Ahead and Well 01.33
Badly Ahead and Well 00.4
Ahead and Well Behind and Awful 4.490
Average Behind and Awful 00.94
Above Avg Behind and Awful 1.190
Ahead and Well Below Avg 2.210
Average Below Avg 3.981.44
Above Avg Below Avg 2.181.34
Badly Well 01.05
Behind but Well Well 0.790
14.876.53

Model 3 Predictions

Model 3 is an evolutionary model, and the groupings will change on a week-to-week basis. In general, Model 3 is more highly highly predictive than Model 1.

DAL PlaysTB Plays DAL WsTB Ws
Group 2 Group 5 21.41
Group 0 Group 5 1.380.35
Group 3 Group 4 1.980.01
Group 0 Group 4 1.220
Group 4 Group 3 00.97
Group 0 Group 2 0.170.89
Group 2 Group 2 00.6
Group 4 Group 2 00.45
Group 1 Group 1 0.380.4
Group 0 Group 0 2.020.16
9.185.27

Head-to-Head History of DAL @ TB

Day Outcome DAL Played TB Played
Sunday, November 15, 2015 4 pt W TB Average Behind and Awful
Saturday, December 17, 2011 16 pt W DAL Ahead and Well Below Avg
Sunday, September 13, 2009 13 pt W DAL Above Avg Behind and Awful