The Konosa pro football pick system (version 1.0.0)

New Orleans Saints @ Washington Redskins

Game will take place Sunday, November 15, 2015

Our model believes that the are most likely to win this game.

NO Money Line

-103
Est. Payout on $100 bet:
$197.08
Odds Based Upon Moneyline:
50.73%

WAS Money Line

-107
Est. Payout on $100 bet:
$193.45
Odds Based Upon Moneyline:
51.69%

Model 1 Predictions

Model 1 is a more static model than Model 3. While it does a better job of decribing the actual expected performance of each team, it is generally less predictive than Model 3. A gap between the Model 1 and Model 3 predicted wins for a team should be viewed as a sign that the team in question is undergoing significant improvement or decline.

NO PlaysWAS Plays NO WsWAS Ws
Behind and Awful Ahead and Well 02.94
Ahead and Well Behind and Awful 4.960
Above Avg Behind and Awful 2.651.5
Average Below Avg 2.883.05
Above Avg Below Avg 1.191.47
Badly Below Avg 00.89
Behind but Well Below Avg 0.720
Average Above Avg 00.54
Badly Well 02.21
Behind but Well Well 0.870
13.2912.62

Model 3 Predictions

Model 3 is an evolutionary model, and the groupings will change on a week-to-week basis. In general, Model 3 is more highly highly predictive than Model 1.

NO PlaysWAS Plays NO WsWAS Ws
Group 2 Group 5 0.31.26
Group 0 Group 5 1.031.05
Group 3 Group 4 2.710.29
Group 0 Group 4 0.990.58
Group 2 Group 3 00
Group 4 Group 3 02.29
Group 2 Group 2 0.020
Group 1 Group 2 0.450.59
Group 1 Group 1 01.28
Group 0 Group 0 0.430.03
5.967.4

Head-to-Head History of NO @ WAS

Day Outcome NO Played WAS Played
Sunday, November 15, 2015 33 pt W WAS Behind and Awful Ahead and Well
Sunday, December 6, 2009 3 pt W NO Behind but Well Well