The Konosa pro football pick system (version 1.0.0)

Buffalo Bills @ New York Jets

Game will take place Thursday, November 12, 2015

Our model believes that the are most likely to win this game.

BUF Money Line

+117
Est. Payout on $100 bet:
$117
Odds Based Upon Moneyline:
46.08%

NYJ Money Line

-127
Est. Payout on $100 bet:
$178.74
Odds Based Upon Moneyline:
55.94%

Model 1 Predictions

Model 1 is a more static model than Model 3. While it does a better job of decribing the actual expected performance of each team, it is generally less predictive than Model 3. A gap between the Model 1 and Model 3 predicted wins for a team should be viewed as a sign that the team in question is undergoing significant improvement or decline.

BUF PlaysNYJ Plays BUF WsNYJ Ws
Behind and Awful Ahead and Well 04.08
Ahead and Well Behind and Awful 3.040
Average Behind and Awful 00.33
Above Avg Behind and Awful 1.350.28
Behind and Awful Below Avg 01.4
Average Below Avg 2.052.7
Badly Below Avg 00.57
Average Above Avg 0.260
Average Well 1.120
Badly Well 04.22
Behind but Well Well 0.760
Average Behind but Well 00.43
8.6114.04

Model 3 Predictions

Model 3 is an evolutionary model, and the groupings will change on a week-to-week basis. In general, Model 3 is more highly highly predictive than Model 1.

BUF PlaysNYJ Plays BUF WsNYJ Ws
Group 2 Group 5 1.481.59
Group 1 Group 5 00.47
Group 0 Group 5 0.511.73
Group 3 Group 4 1.360
Group 0 Group 4 0.210
Group 1 Group 3 00.01
Group 2 Group 3 00.36
Group 4 Group 3 01.38
Group 5 Group 2 0.10
Group 2 Group 2 01.49
Group 2 Group 1 00
Group 1 Group 1 0.521.65
Group 0 Group 0 1.680.16
5.888.88

Head-to-Head History of BUF @ NYJ

Day Outcome BUF Played NYJ Played
Thursday, November 12, 2015 5 pt W BUF Average Well
Sunday, October 26, 2014 20 pt W BUF Ahead and Well Behind and Awful
Sunday, September 22, 2013 7 pt W NYJ Badly Well
Sunday, September 9, 2012 20 pt W NYJ Badly Well
Sunday, November 27, 2011 4 pt W NYJ Average Below Avg
Sunday, January 2, 2011 31 pt W NYJ Behind and Awful Ahead and Well
Sunday, October 18, 2009 3 pt W BUF Average Above Avg