The Konosa pro football pick system (version 1.0.0)

Denver Broncos @ Indianapolis Colts

Game will take place Sunday, November 8, 2015

Our model believes that the are most likely to win this game.

DEN Money Line

-240
Est. Payout on $100 bet:
$141.66
Odds Based Upon Moneyline:
70.58%

IND Money Line

+200
Est. Payout on $100 bet:
$200
Odds Based Upon Moneyline:
33.33%

Model 1 Predictions

Model 1 is a more static model than Model 3. While it does a better job of decribing the actual expected performance of each team, it is generally less predictive than Model 3. A gap between the Model 1 and Model 3 predicted wins for a team should be viewed as a sign that the team in question is undergoing significant improvement or decline.

DEN PlaysIND Plays DEN WsIND Ws
Behind and Awful Ahead and Well 02.41
Badly Ahead and Well 01.03
Ahead and Well Behind and Awful 3.930
Average Behind and Awful 0.990
Above Avg Behind and Awful 2.81.27
Ahead and Well Below Avg 0.920
Average Below Avg 2.792.24
Above Avg Below Avg 0.480.65
Badly Below Avg 00.49
Behind but Well Below Avg 0.60.6
Average Above Avg 0.670.9
Badly Above Avg 00.79
Average Well 01.79
Badly Well 02.34
Behind but Well Well 0.890
14.1114.56

Model 3 Predictions

Model 3 is an evolutionary model, and the groupings will change on a week-to-week basis. In general, Model 3 is more highly highly predictive than Model 1.

DEN PlaysIND Plays DEN WsIND Ws
Group 5 Group 5 0.440
Group 2 Group 5 1.221.08
Group 0 Group 5 0.050.57
Group 5 Group 4 1.20.41
Group 3 Group 4 2.680.63
Group 0 Group 4 0.620
Group 4 Group 3 01.33
Group 2 Group 2 0.321.14
Group 0 Group 2 0.340.34
Group 2 Group 1 0.240
Group 1 Group 1 02.48
Group 0 Group 0 2.080.66
9.238.68

Head-to-Head History of DEN @ IND

Day Outcome DEN Played IND Played
Sunday, November 8, 2015 3 pt W IND Average Well
Sunday, October 20, 2013 6 pt W IND Badly Below Avg
Sunday, December 13, 2009 12 pt W IND Badly Well