The Konosa pro football pick system (version 1.0.0)

Atlanta Falcons @ San Fransisco 49ers

Game will take place Sunday, November 8, 2015

Our model believes that the 49ers are most likely to win this game.

ATL Money Line

-330
Est. Payout on $100 bet:
$130.3
Odds Based Upon Moneyline:
76.74%

SF Money Line

+270
Est. Payout on $100 bet:
$270
Odds Based Upon Moneyline:
27.02%

Model 1 Predictions

Model 1 is a more static model than Model 3. While it does a better job of decribing the actual expected performance of each team, it is generally less predictive than Model 3. A gap between the Model 1 and Model 3 predicted wins for a team should be viewed as a sign that the team in question is undergoing significant improvement or decline.

ATL PlaysSF Plays ATL WsSF Ws
Behind and Awful Ahead and Well 02.61
Badly Ahead and Well 01.25
Ahead and Well Behind and Awful 2.450
Above Avg Behind and Awful 0.620
Ahead and Well Below Avg 1.580
Average Below Avg 3.44.85
Above Avg Below Avg 0.280
Behind and Awful Above Avg 00.67
Average Above Avg 0.840.45
Badly Above Avg 01.01
Behind and Awful Well 01.21
Average Well 0.650.79
Badly Well 03.42
Behind but Well Well 1.180
11.0416.31

Model 3 Predictions

Model 3 is an evolutionary model, and the groupings will change on a week-to-week basis. In general, Model 3 is more highly highly predictive than Model 1.

ATL PlaysSF Plays ATL WsSF Ws
Group 2 Group 5 1.272.89
Group 1 Group 5 00.7
Group 0 Group 5 1.461.17
Group 5 Group 4 0.320
Group 3 Group 4 1.040
Group 0 Group 4 0.610
Group 4 Group 3 01.1
Group 2 Group 2 1.080.74
Group 0 Group 2 0.350.35
Group 2 Group 1 0.020.35
Group 1 Group 1 0.291.27
Group 0 Group 0 0.320
6.818.62

Head-to-Head History of ATL @ SF

Day Outcome ATL Played SF Played
Sunday, November 8, 2015 1 pt W SF Badly Well
Monday, December 23, 2013 10 pt W SF Badly Above Avg
Sunday, October 11, 2009 35 pt W ATL Ahead and Well Behind and Awful