The Konosa pro football pick system (version 1.0.0)

Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills

Game will take place Sunday, November 8, 2015

Our model believes that the are most likely to win this game.

MIA Money Line

+125
Est. Payout on $100 bet:
$125
Odds Based Upon Moneyline:
44.44%

BUF Money Line

-145
Est. Payout on $100 bet:
$168.96
Odds Based Upon Moneyline:
59.18%

Model 1 Predictions

Model 1 is a more static model than Model 3. While it does a better job of decribing the actual expected performance of each team, it is generally less predictive than Model 3. A gap between the Model 1 and Model 3 predicted wins for a team should be viewed as a sign that the team in question is undergoing significant improvement or decline.

MIA PlaysBUF Plays MIA WsBUF Ws
Behind and Awful Ahead and Well 01.78
Ahead and Well Behind and Awful 3.660
Average Behind and Awful 0.310.84
Above Avg Behind and Awful 1.90.45
Ahead and Well Below Avg 1.720
Average Below Avg 2.852.85
Above Avg Below Avg 0.710
Behind but Well Below Avg 0.810
Average Above Avg 00.88
Behind and Awful Well 02.97
Average Well 00.42
Badly Well 02.16
Behind but Well Well 0.530
12.5312.4

Model 3 Predictions

Model 3 is an evolutionary model, and the groupings will change on a week-to-week basis. In general, Model 3 is more highly highly predictive than Model 1.

MIA PlaysBUF Plays MIA WsBUF Ws
Group 5 Group 5 00
Group 2 Group 5 0.261.68
Group 0 Group 5 0.431.04
Group 5 Group 4 0.560
Group 3 Group 4 1.920
Group 1 Group 3 00.22
Group 4 Group 3 02.13
Group 2 Group 2 1.460.52
Group 0 Group 2 0.310
Group 1 Group 1 0.582.1
Group 0 Group 0 0.720
6.287.71

Head-to-Head History of MIA @ BUF

Day Outcome MIA Played BUF Played
Sunday, November 8, 2015 16 pt W BUF Behind and Awful Well
Sunday, September 14, 2014 19 pt W BUF Badly Well
Sunday, December 22, 2013 19 pt W BUF Behind and Awful Well
Thursday, November 15, 2012 5 pt W BUF Average Well
Sunday, December 18, 2011 7 pt W MIA Above Avg Behind and Awful
Sunday, September 12, 2010 5 pt W MIA Above Avg Behind and Awful
Sunday, November 29, 2009 17 pt W BUF Average Above Avg