The Konosa pro football pick system (version 1.0.0)

Green Bay Packers @ Carolina Panthers

Game will take place Sunday, November 8, 2015

Our model believes that the Panthers are most likely to win this game.

GB Money Line

-145
Est. Payout on $100 bet:
$168.96
Odds Based Upon Moneyline:
59.18%

CAR Money Line

+125
Est. Payout on $100 bet:
$125
Odds Based Upon Moneyline:
44.44%

Model 1 Predictions

Model 1 is a more static model than Model 3. While it does a better job of decribing the actual expected performance of each team, it is generally less predictive than Model 3. A gap between the Model 1 and Model 3 predicted wins for a team should be viewed as a sign that the team in question is undergoing significant improvement or decline.

GB PlaysCAR Plays GB WsCAR Ws
Behind and Awful Ahead and Well 02.3
Ahead and Well Behind and Awful 4.580
Above Avg Behind and Awful 0.540
Ahead and Well Below Avg 1.840
Average Below Avg 3.393.41
Above Avg Below Avg 1.20.88
Badly Below Avg 00.52
Average Above Avg 00
Behind and Awful Well 01.37
Average Well 00.49
Badly Well 03.14
11.5712.14

Model 3 Predictions

Model 3 is an evolutionary model, and the groupings will change on a week-to-week basis. In general, Model 3 is more highly highly predictive than Model 1.

GB PlaysCAR Plays GB WsCAR Ws
Group 5 Group 5 0.010
Group 2 Group 5 0.711.58
Group 1 Group 5 00.43
Group 0 Group 5 1.330.42
Group 0 Group 4 0.710
Group 3 Group 4 0.650
Group 5 Group 4 0.420
Group 4 Group 3 00.97
Group 1 Group 3 00.66
Group 2 Group 2 0.61.01
Group 2 Group 1 0.621.45
Group 1 Group 1 02.75
Group 0 Group 0 2.121.22
7.2110.52

Head-to-Head History of GB @ CAR

Day Outcome GB Played CAR Played
Sunday, November 8, 2015 8 pt W CAR Badly Well
Sunday, September 18, 2011 7 pt W GB Average Below Avg