The Konosa pro football pick system (version 1.0.0)

Cleveland Browns @ Cincinnati Bengals

Game will take place Thursday, November 5, 2015

Our model believes that the are most likely to win this game.

CLE Money Line

+520
Est. Payout on $100 bet:
$520
Odds Based Upon Moneyline:
16.12%

CIN Money Line

-630
Est. Payout on $100 bet:
$115.87
Odds Based Upon Moneyline:
86.3%

Model 1 Predictions

Model 1 is a more static model than Model 3. While it does a better job of decribing the actual expected performance of each team, it is generally less predictive than Model 3. A gap between the Model 1 and Model 3 predicted wins for a team should be viewed as a sign that the team in question is undergoing significant improvement or decline.

CLE PlaysCIN Plays CLE WsCIN Ws
Behind and Awful Ahead and Well 04.94
Badly Ahead and Well 01.37
Ahead and Well Behind and Awful 0.980
Above Avg Behind and Awful 1.020.29
Average Below Avg 1.484.24
Behind but Well Below Avg 1.650
Behind and Awful Above Avg 00.5
Behind and Awful Well 01.02
Badly Well 03.15
Behind but Well Well 0.510
Above Avg Behind but Well 00.5
5.6616.06

Model 3 Predictions

Model 3 is an evolutionary model, and the groupings will change on a week-to-week basis. In general, Model 3 is more highly highly predictive than Model 1.

CLE PlaysCIN Plays CLE WsCIN Ws
Group 2 Group 5 0.581.01
Group 1 Group 5 00.25
Group 0 Group 5 0.80.85
Group 3 Group 4 0.530
Group 4 Group 3 01.86
Group 1 Group 3 00.76
Group 2 Group 2 0.461.53
Group 4 Group 1 00.67
Group 2 Group 1 00.02
Group 1 Group 1 02.37
Group 3 Group 0 00.43
Group 0 Group 0 0.330.47
2.7210.27

Head-to-Head History of CLE @ CIN

Day Outcome CLE Played CIN Played
Thursday, November 5, 2015 21 pt W CIN Behind and Awful Ahead and Well
Thursday, November 6, 2014 21 pt W CLE Ahead and Well Behind and Awful
Sunday, November 17, 2013 21 pt W CIN Above Avg Behind but Well
Sunday, September 16, 2012 7 pt W CIN Badly Well
Sunday, November 27, 2011 3 pt W CIN Average Below Avg
Sunday, December 19, 2010 2 pt W CIN Average Below Avg
Sunday, November 29, 2009 9 pt W CIN Badly Well