The Konosa pro football pick system (version 1.0.0)

Indianapolis Colts @ Carolina Panthers

Game will take place Monday, November 2, 2015

Our model believes that the are most likely to win this game.

IND Money Line

+250
Est. Payout on $100 bet:
$250
Odds Based Upon Moneyline:
28.57%

CAR Money Line

-300
Est. Payout on $100 bet:
$133.33
Odds Based Upon Moneyline:
75%

Model 1 Predictions

Model 1 is a more static model than Model 3. While it does a better job of decribing the actual expected performance of each team, it is generally less predictive than Model 3. A gap between the Model 1 and Model 3 predicted wins for a team should be viewed as a sign that the team in question is undergoing significant improvement or decline.

IND PlaysCAR Plays IND WsCAR Ws
Behind and Awful Ahead and Well 04.29
Badly Ahead and Well 00.43
Ahead and Well Behind and Awful 4.370
Above Avg Behind and Awful 1.70
Ahead and Well Below Avg 0.720
Average Below Avg 4.112.29
Above Avg Below Avg 0.980.38
Behind but Well Below Avg 0.40
Behind and Awful Above Avg 00.94
Average Above Avg 0.590
Behind and Awful Well 01.29
Average Well 0.760.76
Badly Well 0.984.44
14.6614.86

Model 3 Predictions

Model 3 is an evolutionary model, and the groupings will change on a week-to-week basis. In general, Model 3 is more highly highly predictive than Model 1.

IND PlaysCAR Plays IND WsCAR Ws
Group 2 Group 5 1.851.96
Group 1 Group 5 0.50.5
Group 0 Group 5 00.35
Group 5 Group 4 0.320
Group 3 Group 4 1.60
Group 0 Group 4 0.010
Group 4 Group 3 02.43
Group 2 Group 2 0.010.95
Group 4 Group 1 00.42
Group 2 Group 1 0.390.84
Group 1 Group 1 0.692.76
Group 0 Group 0 1.590.77
6.9911.01

Head-to-Head History of IND @ CAR

Day Outcome IND Played CAR Played
Monday, November 2, 2015 3 pt W CAR Badly Well