The Konosa pro football pick system (version 1.0.0)

Green Bay Packers @ Denver Broncos

Game will take place Sunday, November 1, 2015

Our model believes that the Broncos are most likely to win this game.

GB Money Line

-155
Est. Payout on $100 bet:
$164.51
Odds Based Upon Moneyline:
60.78%

DEN Money Line

+135
Est. Payout on $100 bet:
$135
Odds Based Upon Moneyline:
42.55%

Model 1 Predictions

Model 1 is a more static model than Model 3. While it does a better job of decribing the actual expected performance of each team, it is generally less predictive than Model 3. A gap between the Model 1 and Model 3 predicted wins for a team should be viewed as a sign that the team in question is undergoing significant improvement or decline.

GB PlaysDEN Plays GB WsDEN Ws
Behind and Awful Ahead and Well 04.48
Ahead and Well Behind and Awful 4.040
Above Avg Behind and Awful 1.211.11
Ahead and Well Below Avg 2.210
Behind and Awful Below Avg 00.73
Average Below Avg 2.082.53
Above Avg Below Avg 1.441.28
Badly Below Avg 00.45
Average Above Avg 00
Behind and Awful Well 01.48
Average Well 00.38
Badly Well 02.01
11.0114.49

Model 3 Predictions

Model 3 is an evolutionary model, and the groupings will change on a week-to-week basis. In general, Model 3 is more highly highly predictive than Model 1.

GB PlaysDEN Plays GB WsDEN Ws
Group 5 Group 5 0.010
Group 2 Group 5 0.411.19
Group 0 Group 5 0.620.2
Group 5 Group 4 0.340
Group 3 Group 4 1.190
Group 0 Group 4 0.710
Group 1 Group 3 00.75
Group 4 Group 3 01.46
Group 2 Group 2 0.641.4
Group 1 Group 2 00.25
Group 2 Group 1 0.61.41
Group 1 Group 1 02.05
Group 0 Group 0 2.621.95
7.1810.68

Head-to-Head History of GB @ DEN

Day Outcome GB Played DEN Played
Sunday, November 1, 2015 19 pt W DEN Behind and Awful Ahead and Well