The Konosa pro football pick system (version 1.0.0)

New York Jets @ Oakland Raiders

Game will take place Sunday, November 1, 2015

Our model believes that the Jets are most likely to win this game.

NYJ Money Line

-128
Est. Payout on $100 bet:
$178.12
Odds Based Upon Moneyline:
56.14%

OAK Money Line

+108
Est. Payout on $100 bet:
$108
Odds Based Upon Moneyline:
48.07%

Model 1 Predictions

Model 1 is a more static model than Model 3. While it does a better job of decribing the actual expected performance of each team, it is generally less predictive than Model 3. A gap between the Model 1 and Model 3 predicted wins for a team should be viewed as a sign that the team in question is undergoing significant improvement or decline.

NYJ PlaysOAK Plays NYJ WsOAK Ws
Behind and Awful Ahead and Well 01.85
Badly Ahead and Well 01.55
Ahead and Well Behind and Awful 5.570
Average Behind and Awful 0.690.34
Above Avg Behind and Awful 1.380.24
Ahead and Well Below Avg 1.810
Average Below Avg 0.871.65
Above Avg Below Avg 00.6
Behind but Well Below Avg 1.550
Average Above Avg 0.640
Behind and Awful Well 00.91
Badly Well 02.31
Behind but Well Well 0.280
12.849.48

Model 3 Predictions

Model 3 is an evolutionary model, and the groupings will change on a week-to-week basis. In general, Model 3 is more highly highly predictive than Model 1.

NYJ PlaysOAK Plays NYJ WsOAK Ws
Group 2 Group 5 1.010.45
Group 1 Group 5 01.18
Group 0 Group 5 0.970.01
Group 5 Group 4 1.020
Group 3 Group 4 1.980
Group 0 Group 4 0.520.52
Group 4 Group 3 01.96
Group 2 Group 2 0.640.8
Group 1 Group 2 0.261.06
Group 0 Group 2 0.010
Group 1 Group 1 01.87
Group 3 Group 0 0.420
Group 0 Group 0 0.50.01
7.387.91

Head-to-Head History of NYJ @ OAK

Day Outcome NYJ Played OAK Played
Sunday, November 1, 2015 14 pt W OAK Badly Ahead and Well
Sunday, September 25, 2011 10 pt W OAK Average Below Avg
Sunday, October 25, 2009 38 pt W NYJ Ahead and Well Behind and Awful