The Konosa pro football pick system (version 1.0.0)

San Fransisco 49ers @ Saint Louis Rams

Game will take place Sunday, November 1, 2015

Our model believes that the 49ers are most likely to win this game.

SF Money Line

+325
Est. Payout on $100 bet:
$325
Odds Based Upon Moneyline:
23.52%

STL Money Line

-400
Est. Payout on $100 bet:
$125
Odds Based Upon Moneyline:
80%

Model 1 Predictions

Model 1 is a more static model than Model 3. While it does a better job of decribing the actual expected performance of each team, it is generally less predictive than Model 3. A gap between the Model 1 and Model 3 predicted wins for a team should be viewed as a sign that the team in question is undergoing significant improvement or decline.

SF PlaysSTL Plays SF WsSTL Ws
Behind and Awful Ahead and Well 04.66
Ahead and Well Behind and Awful 6.560
Average Behind and Awful 0.530.53
Above Avg Behind and Awful 1.190.43
Ahead and Well Below Avg 2.470
Average Below Avg 1.160.93
Behind and Awful Well 00.98
Badly Well 01.53
11.939.08

Model 3 Predictions

Model 3 is an evolutionary model, and the groupings will change on a week-to-week basis. In general, Model 3 is more highly highly predictive than Model 1.

SF PlaysSTL Plays SF WsSTL Ws
Group 5 Group 5 0.770
Group 2 Group 5 0.630.7
Group 1 Group 5 00.85
Group 0 Group 5 00.35
Group 3 Group 4 2.520
Group 4 Group 3 02.05
Group 1 Group 2 00.35
Group 2 Group 2 00.74
Group 5 Group 2 0.610
Group 2 Group 1 0.110.4
Group 1 Group 1 00.85
Group 5 Group 0 0.110
Group 0 Group 0 2.720.85
7.517.18

Head-to-Head History of SF @ STL

Day Outcome SF Played STL Played
Sunday, November 1, 2015 21 pt W STL Behind and Awful Ahead and Well
Monday, October 13, 2014 14 pt W SF Ahead and Well Below Avg
Thursday, September 26, 2013 24 pt W SF Ahead and Well Behind and Awful
Sunday, December 2, 2012 3 pt W STL Above Avg Behind and Awful
Sunday, January 1, 2012 7 pt W SF Ahead and Well Below Avg
Sunday, December 26, 2010 8 pt W STL Behind and Awful Well
Sunday, January 3, 2010 22 pt W SF Ahead and Well Below Avg