The Konosa pro football pick system (version 1.0.0)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Atlanta Falcons

Game will take place Sunday, November 1, 2015

Our model believes that the Falcons are most likely to win this game.

TB Money Line

+270
Est. Payout on $100 bet:
$270
Odds Based Upon Moneyline:
27.02%

ATL Money Line

-330
Est. Payout on $100 bet:
$130.3
Odds Based Upon Moneyline:
76.74%

Model 1 Predictions

Model 1 is a more static model than Model 3. While it does a better job of decribing the actual expected performance of each team, it is generally less predictive than Model 3. A gap between the Model 1 and Model 3 predicted wins for a team should be viewed as a sign that the team in question is undergoing significant improvement or decline.

TB PlaysATL Plays TB WsATL Ws
Behind and Awful Ahead and Well 03.78
Badly Ahead and Well 00.93
Ahead and Well Behind and Awful 2.850
Average Behind and Awful 0.460.44
Above Avg Behind and Awful 00.89
Behind and Awful Below Avg 00.42
Average Below Avg 2.133.54
Above Avg Below Avg 0.990
Average Above Avg 0.50.79
Behind and Awful Well 00.48
Average Well 00.81
Badly Well 02.74
Behind but Well Well 0.670
7.6314.85

Model 3 Predictions

Model 3 is an evolutionary model, and the groupings will change on a week-to-week basis. In general, Model 3 is more highly highly predictive than Model 1.

TB PlaysATL Plays TB WsATL Ws
Group 2 Group 5 0.531.03
Group 1 Group 5 00.24
Group 0 Group 5 0.780.79
Group 3 Group 4 0.880
Group 4 Group 3 01.91
Group 1 Group 2 00.01
Group 2 Group 1 00
Group 1 Group 1 0.031.79
Group 0 Group 0 3.350.76
5.596.56

Head-to-Head History of TB @ ATL

Day Outcome TB Played ATL Played
Sunday, November 1, 2015 3 pt W TB Average Below Avg
Thursday, September 18, 2014 42 pt W ATL Behind and Awful Ahead and Well
Sunday, October 20, 2013 8 pt W ATL Badly Well
Sunday, December 30, 2012 5 pt W TB Above Avg Below Avg
Sunday, January 1, 2012 21 pt W ATL Behind and Awful Ahead and Well
Sunday, November 7, 2010 6 pt W ATL Average Well
Sunday, November 29, 2009 3 pt W ATL Average Below Avg