The Konosa pro football pick system (version 1.0.0)

Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears

Game will take place Sunday, November 1, 2015

Our model believes that the Bears are most likely to win this game.

MIN Money Line

-120
Est. Payout on $100 bet:
$183.33
Odds Based Upon Moneyline:
54.54%

CHI Money Line

+100
Est. Payout on $100 bet:
$100
Odds Based Upon Moneyline:
50%

Model 1 Predictions

Model 1 is a more static model than Model 3. While it does a better job of decribing the actual expected performance of each team, it is generally less predictive than Model 3. A gap between the Model 1 and Model 3 predicted wins for a team should be viewed as a sign that the team in question is undergoing significant improvement or decline.

MIN PlaysCHI Plays MIN WsCHI Ws
Behind and Awful Ahead and Well 01.51
Badly Ahead and Well 00.86
Ahead and Well Behind and Awful 3.070
Average Behind and Awful 0.710.26
Ahead and Well Below Avg 2.190.29
Behind and Awful Below Avg 00.62
Average Below Avg 2.773.92
Behind and Awful Above Avg 00.44
Average Above Avg 00.73
Badly Above Avg 00.64
Behind and Awful Well 00.49
Average Well 00.87
Badly Well 02.45
8.7613.12

Model 3 Predictions

Model 3 is an evolutionary model, and the groupings will change on a week-to-week basis. In general, Model 3 is more highly highly predictive than Model 1.

MIN PlaysCHI Plays MIN WsCHI Ws
Group 2 Group 5 0.141.8
Group 0 Group 5 1.340.42
Group 5 Group 4 0.540
Group 3 Group 4 0.980
Group 0 Group 4 0.30
Group 1 Group 3 00.23
Group 4 Group 3 01.06
Group 2 Group 2 00.12
Group 2 Group 1 00.17
Group 1 Group 1 01.62
Group 0 Group 0 1.640.36
4.985.82

Head-to-Head History of MIN @ CHI

Day Outcome MIN Played CHI Played
Sunday, November 1, 2015 3 pt W MIN Average Below Avg
Sunday, November 16, 2014 8 pt W CHI Average Below Avg
Sunday, September 15, 2013 1 pt W CHI Badly Well
Sunday, November 25, 2012 18 pt W CHI Badly Ahead and Well
Sunday, October 16, 2011 29 pt W CHI Behind and Awful Ahead and Well
Sunday, November 14, 2010 14 pt W CHI Behind and Awful Below Avg
Monday, December 28, 2009 6 pt W CHI Badly Well