The Konosa pro football pick system (version 1.0.0)

Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots

Game will take place Thursday, October 29, 2015

Our model believes that the Patriots are most likely to win this game.

MIA Money Line

+325
Est. Payout on $100 bet:
$325
Odds Based Upon Moneyline:
23.52%

NE Money Line

-425
Est. Payout on $100 bet:
$123.52
Odds Based Upon Moneyline:
80.95%

Model 1 Predictions

Model 1 is a more static model than Model 3. While it does a better job of decribing the actual expected performance of each team, it is generally less predictive than Model 3. A gap between the Model 1 and Model 3 predicted wins for a team should be viewed as a sign that the team in question is undergoing significant improvement or decline.

MIA PlaysNE Plays MIA WsNE Ws
Behind and Awful Ahead and Well 06.35
Ahead and Well Behind and Awful 1.830
Average Behind and Awful 0.571.18
Above Avg Behind and Awful 1.361.98
Average Below Avg 2.412.32
Above Avg Below Avg 0.430.43
Badly Below Avg 00.95
Average Above Avg 01.27
Behind and Awful Well 01.26
Average Well 00.85
Badly Well 02.73
Behind but Well Well 0.520.52
Average Behind but Well 00.49
Above Avg Behind but Well 01.26
7.1621.67

Model 3 Predictions

Model 3 is an evolutionary model, and the groupings will change on a week-to-week basis. In general, Model 3 is more highly highly predictive than Model 1.

MIA PlaysNE Plays MIA WsNE Ws
Group 5 Group 5 00.01
Group 4 Group 5 00.42
Group 2 Group 5 0.41.81
Group 0 Group 5 0.340.36
Group 5 Group 4 0.680.68
Group 4 Group 3 03.63
Group 2 Group 2 1.121.12
Group 0 Group 2 0.110.11
Group 1 Group 1 0.482.04
Group 4 Group 0 00.56
Group 0 Group 0 0.740.97
3.9111.78

Head-to-Head History of MIA @ NE

Day Outcome MIA Played NE Played
Thursday, October 29, 2015 29 pt W NE Behind and Awful Ahead and Well
Sunday, December 14, 2014 28 pt W NE Above Avg Behind but Well
Sunday, October 27, 2013 10 pt W NE Average Behind but Well
Sunday, December 30, 2012 28 pt W NE Behind and Awful Ahead and Well
Saturday, December 24, 2011 3 pt W NE Above Avg Behind but Well
Sunday, January 2, 2011 31 pt W NE Behind and Awful Ahead and Well
Sunday, November 8, 2009 10 pt W NE Above Avg Behind and Awful