The Konosa pro football pick system (version 1.0.0)

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Kansas City Chiefs

Game will take place Sunday, October 25, 2015

Our model believes that the are most likely to win this game.

PIT Money Line

+135
Est. Payout on $100 bet:
$135
Odds Based Upon Moneyline:
42.55%

KC Money Line

-145
Est. Payout on $100 bet:
$168.96
Odds Based Upon Moneyline:
59.18%

Model 1 Predictions

Model 1 is a more static model than Model 3. While it does a better job of decribing the actual expected performance of each team, it is generally less predictive than Model 3. A gap between the Model 1 and Model 3 predicted wins for a team should be viewed as a sign that the team in question is undergoing significant improvement or decline.

PIT PlaysKC Plays PIT WsKC Ws
Behind and Awful Ahead and Well 02.59
Badly Ahead and Well 00.72
Ahead and Well Behind and Awful 2.960
Above Avg Behind and Awful 2.330
Ahead and Well Below Avg 0.730
Average Below Avg 3.382.59
Above Avg Below Avg 1.521.06
Behind but Well Below Avg 0.470
Average Above Avg 0.50.8
Behind and Awful Well 00.96
Average Well 0.881.16
Badly Well 02.95
Behind but Well Well 0.550
13.3712.87

Model 3 Predictions

Model 3 is an evolutionary model, and the groupings will change on a week-to-week basis. In general, Model 3 is more highly highly predictive than Model 1.

PIT PlaysKC Plays PIT WsKC Ws
Group 5 Group 5 0.480
Group 2 Group 5 0.681.29
Group 1 Group 5 0.550.69
Group 0 Group 5 1.791.47
Group 3 Group 4 0.610
Group 5 Group 4 0.320
Group 4 Group 3 01.36
Group 2 Group 1 00.5
Group 1 Group 1 02.23
Group 0 Group 0 1.920.01
6.377.58

Head-to-Head History of PIT @ KC

Day Outcome PIT Played KC Played
Sunday, October 25, 2015 10 pt W KC Behind and Awful Well
Sunday, November 27, 2011 4 pt W PIT Average Below Avg
Sunday, November 22, 2009 3 pt W KC Above Avg Below Avg