The Konosa pro football pick system (version 1.0.0)

Houston Texans @ Miami Dolphins

Game will take place Sunday, October 25, 2015

Our model believes that the are most likely to win this game.

HOU Money Line

+175
Est. Payout on $100 bet:
$175
Odds Based Upon Moneyline:
36.36%

MIA Money Line

-210
Est. Payout on $100 bet:
$147.61
Odds Based Upon Moneyline:
67.74%

Model 1 Predictions

Model 1 is a more static model than Model 3. While it does a better job of decribing the actual expected performance of each team, it is generally less predictive than Model 3. A gap between the Model 1 and Model 3 predicted wins for a team should be viewed as a sign that the team in question is undergoing significant improvement or decline.

HOU PlaysMIA Plays HOU WsMIA Ws
Behind and Awful Ahead and Well 01.83
Badly Ahead and Well 01.53
Ahead and Well Behind and Awful 3.850
Average Behind and Awful 00.44
Above Avg Behind and Awful 1.50.42
Ahead and Well Below Avg 2.970
Behind and Awful Below Avg 00.53
Average Below Avg 1.892.48
Behind but Well Below Avg 0.820
Behind and Awful Above Avg 00.46
Average Above Avg 0.320.84
Behind and Awful Well 00.66
Average Well 00.56
Badly Well 01.83
Behind but Well Well 0.880
12.2811.62

Model 3 Predictions

Model 3 is an evolutionary model, and the groupings will change on a week-to-week basis. In general, Model 3 is more highly highly predictive than Model 1.

HOU PlaysMIA Plays HOU WsMIA Ws
Group 5 Group 5 0.280
Group 4 Group 5 00.33
Group 2 Group 5 0.852.05
Group 1 Group 5 0.290.32
Group 0 Group 5 1.340.42
Group 0 Group 4 0.420
Group 3 Group 4 1.480
Group 5 Group 4 0.260
Group 4 Group 3 02.3
Group 4 Group 2 00.34
Group 2 Group 2 0.110
Group 1 Group 2 00.02
Group 2 Group 1 0.380.64
Group 1 Group 1 0.010.34
Group 0 Group 0 1.960.93
7.437.75

Head-to-Head History of HOU @ MIA

Day Outcome HOU Played MIA Played
Sunday, October 25, 2015 18 pt W MIA Badly Ahead and Well
Sunday, September 18, 2011 10 pt W HOU Ahead and Well Behind and Awful
Sunday, December 27, 2009 7 pt W HOU Above Avg Behind and Awful