The Konosa pro football pick system (version 1.0.0)

Buffalo Bills @ Jacksonville Jaguars

Game will take place Sunday, October 25, 2015

Our model believes that the are most likely to win this game.

BUF Money Line

-255
Est. Payout on $100 bet:
$139.21
Odds Based Upon Moneyline:
71.83%

JAC Money Line

+215
Est. Payout on $100 bet:
$215
Odds Based Upon Moneyline:
31.74%

Model 1 Predictions

Model 1 is a more static model than Model 3. While it does a better job of decribing the actual expected performance of each team, it is generally less predictive than Model 3. A gap between the Model 1 and Model 3 predicted wins for a team should be viewed as a sign that the team in question is undergoing significant improvement or decline.

BUF PlaysJAC Plays BUF WsJAC Ws
Ahead and Well Behind and Awful 5.150
Average Behind and Awful 00.36
Above Avg Behind and Awful 0.950.3
Behind and Awful Below Avg 00.58
Average Below Avg 2.213.17
Badly Below Avg 00.99
Behind but Well Below Avg 0.680
Average Above Avg 0.811.43
Badly Well 03.5
9.8310.36

Model 3 Predictions

Model 3 is an evolutionary model, and the groupings will change on a week-to-week basis. In general, Model 3 is more highly highly predictive than Model 1.

BUF PlaysJAC Plays BUF WsJAC Ws
Group 2 Group 5 1.711.91
Group 1 Group 5 00.47
Group 0 Group 5 0.520.8
Group 3 Group 4 2.240
Group 0 Group 4 0.140
Group 4 Group 3 00.74
Group 2 Group 2 01.09
Group 1 Group 1 0.341.45
Group 0 Group 0 1.850.02
6.836.52

Head-to-Head History of BUF @ JAC

Day Outcome BUF Played JAC Played
Sunday, October 25, 2015 3 pt W JAC Badly Below Avg
Sunday, December 15, 2013 7 pt W BUF Average Below Avg
Sunday, November 22, 2009 3 pt W JAC Average Below Avg