The Konosa pro football pick system (version 1.0.0)

New England Patriots @ Indianapolis Colts

Game will take place Sunday, October 18, 2015

Model 1 Predictions

Model 1 is a more static model than Model 3. While it does a better job of decribing the actual expected performance of each team, it is generally less predictive than Model 3. A gap between the Model 1 and Model 3 predicted wins for a team should be viewed as a sign that the team in question is undergoing significant improvement or decline.

NE PlaysIND Plays NE WsIND Ws
Behind and Awful Ahead and Well 02.1
Ahead and Well Behind and Awful 4.890
Average Behind and Awful 1.450
Above Avg Behind and Awful 1.41.53
Ahead and Well Below Avg 0.770
Average Below Avg 2.242.44
Above Avg Below Avg 0.780.75
Behind but Well Below Avg 0.740.74
Average Above Avg 00.44
Behind and Awful Well 01.11
Badly Well 01.98
12.311.12

Model 3 Predictions

Model 3 is an evolutionary model, and the groupings will change on a week-to-week basis. In general, Model 3 is more highly highly predictive than Model 1.

NE PlaysIND Plays NE WsIND Ws
Group 5 Group 5 0.010
Group 2 Group 5 1.691.45
Group 1 Group 5 00.43
Group 0 Group 5 0.911.13
Group 0 Group 4 0.550
Group 3 Group 4 1.460.34
Group 5 Group 4 1.250.34
Group 4 Group 3 01.48
Group 1 Group 2 00.31
Group 0 Group 2 0.20.21
Group 4 Group 1 00.01
Group 1 Group 1 01.91
Group 0 Group 0 1.970.93
8.098.59

Head-to-Head History of NE @ IND

Day Outcome NE Played IND Played
Sunday, October 18, 2015 7 pt W NE Average Behind and Awful
Sunday, November 16, 2014 22 pt W NE Ahead and Well Behind and Awful
Sunday, November 15, 2009 1 pt W IND Above Avg Behind and Awful