The Konosa pro football pick system (version 1.0.0)

Denver Broncos @ Oakland Raiders

Game will take place Sunday, October 11, 2015

Our model believes that the are most likely to win this game.

DEN Money Line

-210
Est. Payout on $100 bet:
$147.61
Odds Based Upon Moneyline:
67.74%

OAK Money Line

+175
Est. Payout on $100 bet:
$175
Odds Based Upon Moneyline:
36.36%

Model 1 Predictions

Model 1 is a more static model than Model 3. While it does a better job of decribing the actual expected performance of each team, it is generally less predictive than Model 3. A gap between the Model 1 and Model 3 predicted wins for a team should be viewed as a sign that the team in question is undergoing significant improvement or decline.

DEN PlaysOAK Plays DEN WsOAK Ws
Behind and Awful Ahead and Well 00.96
Badly Ahead and Well 01.48
Ahead and Well Behind and Awful 7.040
Average Behind and Awful 0.820.41
Above Avg Behind and Awful 2.490.43
Ahead and Well Below Avg 10
Behind and Awful Below Avg 00.5
Average Below Avg 3.11.68
Above Avg Below Avg 0.560.89
Behind but Well Below Avg 0.630
Average Above Avg 0.860
Badly Above Avg 00.66
Badly Well 02.02
Behind but Well Well 0.620
Behind and Awful Behind but Well 00.6
17.179.67

Model 3 Predictions

Model 3 is an evolutionary model, and the groupings will change on a week-to-week basis. In general, Model 3 is more highly highly predictive than Model 1.

DEN PlaysOAK Plays DEN WsOAK Ws
Group 2 Group 5 0.750.22
Group 0 Group 5 0.050.01
Group 5 Group 4 1.640
Group 3 Group 4 3.440
Group 0 Group 4 0.530.53
Group 4 Group 3 00.69
Group 2 Group 2 0.280.99
Group 0 Group 2 0.660
Group 1 Group 1 01.73
Group 0 Group 0 1.80.01
9.184.21

Head-to-Head History of DEN @ OAK

Day Outcome DEN Played OAK Played
Sunday, October 11, 2015 6 pt W DEN Average Below Avg
Sunday, November 9, 2014 24 pt W DEN Ahead and Well Behind and Awful
Sunday, December 29, 2013 20 pt W DEN Ahead and Well Behind and Awful
Thursday, December 6, 2012 13 pt W DEN Above Avg Behind and Awful
Sunday, November 6, 2011 14 pt W DEN Behind but Well Below Avg
Sunday, December 19, 2010 16 pt W OAK Behind and Awful Behind but Well
Sunday, September 27, 2009 20 pt W DEN Ahead and Well Behind and Awful