The Konosa pro football pick system (version 1.0.0)

New England Patriots @ Dallas Cowboys

Game will take place Sunday, October 11, 2015

Our model believes that the are most likely to win this game.

NE Money Line

-420
Est. Payout on $100 bet:
$123.8
Odds Based Upon Moneyline:
80.76%

DAL Money Line

+335
Est. Payout on $100 bet:
$335
Odds Based Upon Moneyline:
22.98%

Model 1 Predictions

Model 1 is a more static model than Model 3. While it does a better job of decribing the actual expected performance of each team, it is generally less predictive than Model 3. A gap between the Model 1 and Model 3 predicted wins for a team should be viewed as a sign that the team in question is undergoing significant improvement or decline.

NE PlaysDAL Plays NE WsDAL Ws
Behind and Awful Ahead and Well 02.43
Ahead and Well Behind and Awful 5.510
Average Behind and Awful 1.060
Above Avg Behind and Awful 1.430.79
Ahead and Well Below Avg 0.80
Average Below Avg 3.542.62
Above Avg Below Avg 0.730.64
Behind but Well Below Avg 0.780
Average Above Avg 01.18
Badly Well 01.07
13.888.75

Model 3 Predictions

Model 3 is an evolutionary model, and the groupings will change on a week-to-week basis. In general, Model 3 is more highly highly predictive than Model 1.

NE PlaysDAL Plays NE WsDAL Ws
Group 5 Group 5 0.710.5
Group 2 Group 5 2.21.45
Group 1 Group 5 00.56
Group 0 Group 5 0.790.67
Group 0 Group 4 0.390
Group 3 Group 4 1.660
Group 5 Group 4 1.420
Group 4 Group 3 00.96
Group 5 Group 2 0.480
Group 0 Group 2 0.440
Group 1 Group 1 01
Group 0 Group 0 1.791.6
9.926.77

Head-to-Head History of NE @ DAL

Day Outcome NE Played DAL Played
Sunday, October 11, 2015 24 pt W NE Ahead and Well Behind and Awful